Buffett stated an expectation that, at GEICO, float would over time be free (no cost).

Judge on GEICO's underwriting results from 2001 through the latest full year reported when the research is done. Float is free when underwriting is profitable, that is, when the combined ratio is at or below 100%. True: GEICO made a cumulative underwriting profit over that period, with an underwriting profit in most years. Mostly true: a cumulative underwriting profit over the period, but with several loss years or a recent stretch of losses. Mixed: cumulative underwriting results roughly break even. Mostly false: a modest cumulative underwriting loss. False: a substantial cumulative underwriting loss, meaning float had a clear cost over time.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 [PDF] 2025 Berkshire letter - printmgr file Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Own record

   “GEICO’s broad rate increases in recent years have restored margins but come at the cost of lower retention.”

2. E2 2023 Annual Report Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Own record

   “GEICO’s expense ratio was 11.7% in 2022, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points compared to 2021, attributable to both the decrease in expenses as well as higher premiums earned.”

3. E3 2023 Annual Report Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Own record

   “Berkshire expects to achieve an underwriting profit over time and that its managers will reject inadequately priced risks.”

4. E4 Berkshire Hathaway Inc. 2023 Annual Report Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Own record

   “Our P/C companies have meanwhile had an excellent underwriting record. Berkshire has now operated at an underwriting profit for 18 of the last 20 years, the exceptions being 2017 and 2022. In 2017 our pre-tax loss was a whopping $3.2 billion. In 2022 the loss was minimal. For the entire 20-year span, our pre-tax gain totaled $29.2 billion.”

5. E5 To My Fellow Berkshire Shareholders (2025 shareholder letter) Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Own record

   “GEICO has been a significant contributor to the group’s lower combined ratio. Over the past few years, GEICO has improved its cost structure, strengthened its underwriting discipline, and enhanced its ability to segment customers and the related pricing of risk.”

6. E6 To My Fellow Berkshire Shareholders (2025 shareholder letter) Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Own record

   “We produced a combined ratio of 87.1% across our property and casualty businesses in 2025”

7. E7 To My Fellow Berkshire Shareholders (2025 shareholder letter) Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Own record

   “At year-end, our insurance float – the capital we hold to pay future losses and, in the meantime, invest for Berkshire’s benefit – stood at $176 billion.”

8. E8 Berkshire Hathaway Inc. 2009 Annual Report Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (filed with the SEC as Exhibit 99.1) · 2009 Own record

   “Equally important, GEICO has operated at an underwriting profit in 13 of the 14 years Berkshire has owned it.”

9. E9 Berkshire Hathaway Inc. 2009 Annual Report Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (filed with the SEC as Exhibit 99.1) · 2009 Own record

   “| GEICO | | | 649 | | | 916 | | | 9,613 | | | 8,454 |”

10. E10 2004ltr.pdf Berkshire Hathaway Inc. · 2004 Own record

    “When an underwriting profit is achieved – as has been the case at Berkshire in about half of the 38 years we have been in the insurance business – float is better than free.”

E8, Berkshire's 2009 annual report, says GEICO made an underwriting profit in 13 of the 14 years Berkshire had owned it. That covers only part of the 2001–present period and gives no cumulative dollar figure. E1 says GEICO's rate increases 'restored margins' in recent years, which suggests weaker results before, and E5 says GEICO improved its cost structure and underwriting discipline, but neither puts numbers on GEICO's results. E4 and E6 report results for Berkshire's property and casualty businesses as a whole, not for GEICO alone. The E9 table row has no labels. The evidence does not establish GEICO's cumulative underwriting result from 2001 through the latest reported year, so the criteria cannot be applied.