The US debt-to-GDP ratio is over 100%.

The claim names no particular debt measure, so any standard US federal debt-to-GDP measure counts. TRUE: as of June 2025, the most recent official figure (for example total public debt as a percent of GDP from FRED/OMB/Treasury, or CBO's debt held by the public) was above 100%. MOSTLY TRUE: the ratio was at about 100% (within about 2 points) on the commonly cited measure. MOSTLY FALSE: the ratio exceeded 100% only on an unusual or non-federal measure and not on standard federal measures. FALSE: no standard federal debt-to-GDP measure exceeded 100% at the time.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2025 to 2055 Congressional Budget Office · 27 March 2025

   “In 2029, it climbs to 107 percent of GDP, exceeding the historical peak of 106 percent reached in 1946, immediately after World War II.”

2. E2 The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2025 to 2055 Congressional Budget Office · 27 March 2025

   “In 2029, it climbs to 107 percent of GDP, exceeding the historical peak of 106 percent reached in 1946, immediately after World War II.”

3. E3 The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2025 to 2055 Congressional Budget Office · 27 March 2025

   “Debt held by the public, boosted by large deficits, reaches its highest level ever in 2029 (measured as a percentage of gross domestic product, or GDP) and then continues to grow, reaching 156 percent of GDP in 2055.”

4. E4 Gross Federal Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product (GFDGDPA188S) | FRED | St. Louis Fed FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (data from U.S. Office of Management and Budget) · 13 April 2026

   “2024: 120.24945”

5. E5 The Long-Term Budget Outlook Under Alternative Scenarios for the Economy and the Budget Congressional Budget Office · 28 May 2025

   “federal debt held by the public, boosted by large deficits, would increase from 100 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 to 156 percent of GDP in 2055”

6. E6 Federal Debt: Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product | FRED | St. Louis Fed FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (data from U.S. Office of Management and Budget) · 28 October 2026

   “Q2 2025: 118.22156”

7. E7 Federal Debt Held by the Public as Percent of Gross Domestic Product | FRED | St. Louis Fed FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (data from U.S. Office of Management and Budget) · 28 October 2026

   “Q2 2025: 94.60010”

The claim holds on gross federal debt, a standard federal measure that the criteria accept. FRED's series on gross federal debt as a percent of GDP (from OMB data) shows 120.2 for 2024 (E4). That was the most recent full-year figure as of June 2025. FRED's total public debt measure shows 118.2 for Q2 2025 (E6). Debt held by the public was lower: about 100% for 2025 in CBO's figures (E5) and 94.6% in FRED's Q2 2025 data (E7). Because any standard federal measure counts and the gross and total public debt measures were well above 100%, the claim resolves true.