Credit spreads have come down.

The claim is that credit spreads had come down as of 2015-09-17. Measure them with standard indices: ICE BofA US High Yield and Investment Grade option-adjusted spreads (FRED), and corporate or sovereign spreads in general. True: in the relevant recent window (the context Dalio was describing, for example the post-2009 or multi-year compression), spreads were clearly lower than at the earlier comparison point. Mostly true: spreads were broadly lower over the longer horizon even though they had widened somewhat in the immediately preceding months. Mixed: the direction depends on the window, for example lower than in 2009–2012 but clearly higher than the 2014 lows in every relevant recent window. Mostly false: spreads had mostly been widening in the relevant period, with compression only in a narrow segment. False: spreads had risen on every reasonable reference period.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Quarterly Bulletin 2015 Q3 Bank of England

   “Corporate credit spreads continued to rise, particularly US high-yield spreads, reflecting the”

2. E2 Quarterly Bulletin 2015 Q3 Bank of England

   “US high-yield bond spreads also widened materially”

3. E3 High-Yield And Equity Markets Have Diverged | Investing.com Investing.com (analysis by Urban Carmel) · 14 August 2015

   “Spreads have, in fact, moved higher in the past year. But mid-2014 was a 7-year low.”

The evidence shows spreads widening during 2015 [E1][E2] and rising over the past year from a 7-year low in mid-2014 [E3]. It gives no spread levels for September 2015 compared with 2009–2012 and does not show widening in every recent window, so it does not settle which category in the criteria applies.