ClaimsEliezer Yudkowsky

“It looks like the AGIs successfully manifesting themselves as 3D video of young women, at which point a vast portion of the male population decides that they’re real people.”

Eliezer Yudkowsky, podcast guest 30 March 2023 Lex Fridman Podcast #368 Eliezer Yudkowsky transcript (Podscript) archived copy

Prediction Philosophy, ethics and society

Asked what such a moment could look like, the subject said it looks like AIs appearing as 3D video of young women, at which point a vast portion of the male population decides they are real people.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

Vague prediction ('vast portion') about beliefs with no horizon or measurable standard.

Cite this claim

Eliezer Yudkowsky, “Asked what such a moment could look like, the subject said it looks like AIs appearing as 3D video of young women, at which point a vast portion of the male population decides they are real people.” (said 30 March 2023). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_92f81b6534d3, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_92f81b6534d3

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Eliezer Yudkowsky, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Eliezer Yudkowsky

  1. Mixed Prediction 5 March 2024
    “Beating GPT-4 on GI just forces OpenAI to release 4.5.”

    If a rival AI developer beats GPT-4 on general intelligence, OpenAI will be forced to release GPT-4.5.

  2. Resolved false Prediction 6 April 2023
    “The current crop of people will not try it.”

    The current AI developers will not try the alignment approach he described (filtering training data to nice examples and training on it).

  3. Mostly false Prediction 6 April 2023
    “So probably Paul’s going to win, but slight moral victory.”

    Paul Christiano will probably win his forecast disagreement with Yudkowsky on an AI getting IMO gold by 2025, with prediction-market odds then running around 30%.

  4. Resolved true Prediction 6 April 2023
    “Alignment will not be solved in a few years.”

    AI alignment will not be solved within a few years.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 6 April 2023
    “even if GPT-5 doesn’t end the world, which I agree is like more than 50% of where my probability mass lies”

    GPT-5 will not end the world, with more than 50% of Yudkowsky's probability on that outcome.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.