ClaimsMark Zuckerberg

“I think a lot of people will basically use the off-the-shelf model and some people who have basically bad faith are going to try to strip out all the bad stuff.”

Mark Zuckerberg, Meta CEO, interviewee 18 April 2024 Mark Zuckerberg - Llama 3, Open Sourcing $10b Models, & Caesar Augustus (Dwarkesh Podcast)

Prediction AI safety and alignment

Many people will use off-the-shelf open models, while some bad-faith actors will try to strip out safeguards.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

Vague, no horizon; a general prediction about user behavior.

Cite this claim

Mark Zuckerberg, “Many people will use off-the-shelf open models, while some bad-faith actors will try to strip out safeguards.” (said 18 April 2024). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_8eeb53697f12, method 0.1.0+3f84d14d, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_8eeb53697f12

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Mark Zuckerberg, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Mark Zuckerberg

  1. Mixed Prediction 10 January 2025
    “it will also mean that we will dramatically reduce the amount of people whose accounts were taking off for a mistake, which is just a terrible experience.”

    Requiring more confidence for takedowns will dramatically reduce the number of people whose Meta accounts are removed by mistake.

  2. Mostly true Prediction 10 January 2025
    “changing the content filters to have to require higher confidence and precision is actually going to be the thing that reduces the vast majority of the censorship mistakes that we make.”

    Changing Meta's content filters to require higher confidence and precision will reduce the vast majority of Meta's censorship mistakes.

  3. Resolved true Prediction 18 April 2024
    “This is only a matter of time but it's not going to be next year.”

    A 1GW data center will be built eventually, but not in 2025 (next year).

  4. Mostly true Prediction 28 September 2023
    “I think Quest 3 is going to be the first device like this that millions of people are going to get that’s mixed reality.”

    Zuckerberg said he thinks Quest 3 is going to be the first mixed reality device that millions of people get.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.