Emerging-market economies are competitive because labor is cheaper and investment levels are high.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
What would count as true or false
Judge as of mid-2010 for emerging-market economies as a group. True: data show emerging markets had much lower labour costs than developed economies and higher investment as a share of GDP, and economists generally cited these factors for their competitiveness. Mostly true: both hold for the main emerging economies (such as China, India and much of Asia), but investment rates were not high in some important ones (such as parts of Latin America). Mixed: only one of the two factors holds for emerging markets broadly. Mostly false: lower labour costs hold, but investment rates in emerging markets were generally not higher than in developed ones, so the claim generalises from China and East Asia alone. False: neither factor is supported by the data.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (6)
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E1 China's manufacturing employment and hourly labor compensation, 2002-2009 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · 7 June 2013
“China’s hourly compensation costs as of 2009 remained far below those of many of its East Asian neighbors such as Japan ($30.03), the Republic of Korea ($15.06), and Singapore ($17.54), but were roughly on par with those of the Philippines ($1.70).”
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E2 China's manufacturing employment and hourly labor compensation, 2002-2009 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · 7 June 2013
“Manufacturing labor compensation per hour in China was 5 percent of U.S. compensation costs in 2009, up from 2 percent in 2002.”
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E3 China's manufacturing employment and hourly labor compensation, 2002-2009 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · 7 June 2013
“China’s hourly compensation costs as of 2009 remained far below those of many of its East Asian neighbors such as Japan ($30.03), the Republic of Korea ($15.06), and Singapore ($17.54), but were roughly on par with those of the Philippines ($1.70).”
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E4 China's manufacturing employment and hourly labor compensation, 2002-2009 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · 7 June 2013
“Manufacturing labor compensation per hour in China was 5 percent of U.S. compensation costs in 2009, up from 2 percent in 2002.”
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E5 International Comparisons of Hourly Compensation Costs in Manufacturing News Release U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · 21 December 2011
“Manufacturing hourly compensation costs in the United States in 2010 were lower than in several northern and western European countries, Australia, and Canada, but higher than in the United Kingdom and 19 countries in southern and eastern Europe, Asia, and South America”
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E6 International Comparisons of Hourly Compensation Costs in Manufacturing News Release U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · 21 December 2011
“Due to various data gaps and methodological issues, compensation costs for China and India are not directly comparable to each other or with the data for other countries found in this release, and therefore are presented separately.”
Reasoning
BLS data show that manufacturing labour costs around 2009–2010 were lower than in the US in China [E2] and in the United Kingdom and 19 countries in southern and eastern Europe, Asia and South America [E5], although the China and India figures are not directly comparable with other countries' data [E6]. China's manufacturing hourly compensation was 5% of the US level in 2009 (E2, E4), and the US was more expensive than 19 countries in southern and eastern Europe, Asia and South America in 2010 (E5). None of the evidence gives investment as a share of GDP for emerging or developed economies, and that is the factor that separates true, mostly true, mixed and mostly false under the criteria. Without investment data the claim cannot be resolved.
Cite this claim
Ray Dalio, “Emerging-market economies are competitive because labor is cheaper and investment levels are high.” (said June 2010). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_8e220d0055b7, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_8e220d0055b7
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More factual claims by Ray Dalio
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Mostly false
“That has been true through all history.”
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Mostly true
“So when we look at history, we see that in all such periods, all the fiat currencies go down, okay?”
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Mostly true
“It takes in about $5 trillion, so it spends 40% more than it takes in.”
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Mostly true
“you could still have financial problems, like the breakdown of the monetary system in 1971, okay?”
The monetary system broke down in 1971 while the United States was still a dominant power.
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Resolved true
“one-third of our debt is held by foreigners, so that’s a different thing.”
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