ClaimsElon Musk

“We can definitely go to the moon and Mars.”

Elon Musk, interviewee 7 September 2018 Joe Rogan Experience #1169 with Elon Musk (Transcript) (Singju Post) archived copy

Prediction Technology

Humans can definitely travel to the Moon and Mars.

Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

The claim has two parts: humans can travel to the Moon, and humans can travel to Mars. Judge them by crewed missions actually achieved. The Moon part is met by any crewed lunar landing, including the Apollo landings. TRUE: humans have also landed on Mars, or travelled there and back, by the time the claim is assessed. MIXED: the Moon part holds but no crewed mission has reached Mars yet, so only one of the two parts is shown. MOSTLY FALSE or FALSE: authoritative evidence shows crewed travel to Mars is not feasible.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Apollo 11 - NASA NASA · 8 March 2023

    “The primary objective of Apollo 11 was to complete a national goal set by President John F. Kennedy on May 25, 1961: perform a crewed lunar landing and return to Earth.”
  2. E2 NASA Welcomes Record-Setting Artemis II Moonfarers Back to Earth - NASA NASA · 11 April 2026

    “and lay the groundwork for sending the first astronauts – American astronauts – to Mars.”
  3. E3 Every step toward Mars, tracked live. Mars Progress (independent Mars news and mission tracker) · 28 September 2026

    “No agency or company has a funded, dated plan to land people. Official talk points to the 2030s at the earliest.”
  4. E4 SpaceX - A Closer Look at SpaceX's Mars Plan Aerospace America (AIAA) · 4 November 2026

    “But this time he gave more details, describing the broad outlines of a step-by-step approach for landing the first humans as soon as 2029.”

Reasoning

NASA's Apollo 11 page (E1) records a crewed lunar landing and return, so the Moon part of the claim is met. NASA's 2026 Artemis II release (E2) describes sending astronauts to Mars as a future goal. The independent tracker (E3) reports that no agency or company has a funded, dated plan to land people on Mars, so no crewed mission has reached Mars. The evidence does not show that crewed Mars travel is infeasible, and none of it reports a crewed mission reaching Mars [E2][E3], so under the criteria only the Moon part is shown, which gives a verdict of mixed.

Cite this claim

Elon Musk, “Humans can definitely travel to the Moon and Mars.” (said 7 September 2018). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_8b85b4a68b08, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_8b85b4a68b08

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Elon Musk, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

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  3. Mostly false Prediction 30 December 2024
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  4. Mostly false Prediction 26 January 2023
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  5. Mostly false Prediction 26 January 2023
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All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.