ClaimsRay Kurzweil

“According to my models, if we replace the linear outlook with the more appropriate exponential outlook, current stock prices should triple.”

Ray Kurzweil, essay author January 2001 The Law of Accelerating Returns (Kurzweil Library) archived copy

Prediction Economics and markets

According to Kurzweil's models, adopting an exponential rather than linear outlook means current stock prices should triple, adding about $40 trillion on roughly $20 trillion of equity.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

Model-based claim about what prices 'should' be with no horizon; not testable.

Cite this claim

Ray Kurzweil, “According to Kurzweil's models, adopting an exponential rather than linear outlook means current stock prices should triple, adding about $40 trillion on roughly $20 trillion of equity.” (said January 2001). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_869848bb4c71, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_869848bb4c71

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

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For Ray Kurzweil, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Ray Kurzweil

  1. Mostly false Prediction January 2001
    “my prediction is that indeed these views will prevail, but only over time, as more and more evidence of the exponential nature of technology and its impact on the economy becomes apparent.”

    Exponential-outlook views of the economy will prevail gradually over the next several years, producing a strong continuing updraft for the stock market.

  2. Mostly false Prediction May 2020
    “This is where combining AI with biotechnology is headed, and within several years all vaccine and medication development could be done this way.”

    Within several years all vaccine and medication development could be done by combining AI with biotechnology.

  3. Mostly false Prediction 3 June 2015
    “We're going to gradually merge and enhance ourselves.”

    Kurzweil predicted that humans will gradually merge with technology and enhance themselves.

  4. Resolved true Prediction 12 December 2002
    “Ten or 15 years from now we’ll go to the third dimension.”

    Ten or 15 years after 2002, computing will move to three-dimensional circuits as integrated circuits run out of steam.

  5. Mostly false Prediction January 2001
    “Computers will be able to read on their own, understanding and modeling what they have read, by the second decade of the twenty-first century.”

    Computers will be able to read on their own, understanding and modeling what they read, by the second decade of the 21st century.

All of them

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