ClaimsNate Silver

“Collins voted against Trump about 1/3 of the time—including voting to impeach him—and has voted with Biden about 1/3 of the time.”

Nate Silver, writing on X 6 June 2022 Post by @NateSilver538 on X, 2022-06-06 (X)

Factual AI policy and governance Political

Senator Susan Collins voted against Trump's position about one-third of the time, including voting to impeach him, and has voted with Biden about one-third of the time.

Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Use FiveThirtyEight's 'Trump Score' and 'Biden Score' trackers (or equivalent vote studies) as of June 2022. 'About 1/3' means roughly 28–38%. The claim has three parts: (1) Collins voted against Trump's position about a third of the time; (2) she voted against Trump in impeachment proceedings; (3) she voted with Biden's position about a third of the time. Her vote to convict at the February 2021 Senate trial counts for part (2): calling a conviction vote 'voting to impeach' is a minor wording slip. TRUE: all three parts hold. MOSTLY TRUE: all three hold in substance, but one figure is a little outside the range (e.g. 25–27% or 39–42%), or only the impeach/convict wording is off. MIXED: one of the two percentage figures is clearly wrong (e.g. her Biden agreement was well above 50%) while the other parts hold. MOSTLY FALSE: both percentages are clearly off, but the impeachment part holds. FALSE: the figures are far off and she did not vote against Trump at any impeachment trial.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (3)

  1. E1 U.S. Senate: U.S. Senate Roll Call Votes 117th Congress - 1st Session U.S. Senate · 13 February 2021

    “Collins (R-ME), Guilty”
  2. E2 Political positions of Susan Collins - Wikipedia Wikipedia

    “FiveThirtyEight, which tracks Congressional votes, found that Collins voted with President Trump's positions about 67% of the time as of November, 2020.”
  3. E3 Political positions of Susan Collins - Wikipedia Wikipedia

    “During the Biden presidency, as of February 2022, FiveThirtyEight found that she has voted with Biden's positions approximately 75.6% of the time.”

Reasoning

E2 cites FiveThirtyEight as finding that Collins voted with Trump's positions about 67% of the time as of November 2020. That means she voted against him about a third of the time, so part (1) holds. The Senate roll call (E1) records Collins voting "Guilty" at the February 2021 impeachment trial, and the criteria count this for part (2). E3, also citing FiveThirtyEight, gives her agreement with Biden's positions as about 75.6% as of February 2022. That is far outside the 28–38% range, so part (3) fails and the outcome is mixed.

Cite this claim

Nate Silver, “Senator Susan Collins voted against Trump's position about one-third of the time, including voting to impeach him, and has voted with Biden about one-third of the time.” (said 6 June 2022). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_840b1d4b31d2, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_840b1d4b31d2

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

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Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.