ClaimsBalaji Srinivasan

“But I think it’s quite likely that the US loses.”

Balaji Srinivasan, interviewee 17 November 2021 Tim Ferriss Show #547 Balaji Srinivasan transcript (tim.blog)

Prediction Other global risks

If a shooting war involving the US occurs, Balaji Srinivasan thinks it quite likely that the US loses.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

The prediction depends on a possible shooting war and gives no time horizon. The material does not show that such a war has happened, and 'quite likely' is vague.

Cite this claim

Balaji Srinivasan, “If a shooting war involving the US occurs, Balaji Srinivasan thinks it quite likely that the US loses.” (said 17 November 2021). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_835aa41d37f5, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_835aa41d37f5

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

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For Balaji Srinivasan, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Balaji Srinivasan

  1. Mixed Prediction 25 March 2021
    “So the fear is that, if vaccines are eventually rolled out and if enough Americans take them, then by 2023 or 2024, people will be spoiling for a fight to go and beat up China as the one legitimated…”

    He said he feared that, if vaccines were rolled out and enough Americans took them, by 2023 or 2024 people would be spoiling for a fight with China as the one legitimated enemy.

  2. Resolved true Prediction 27 August 2024
    “France may not be able to hold him prisoner for long.”

    France may not be able to hold Telegram founder Pavel Durov in custody for long.

  3. Mostly false Prediction 25 March 2021
    “I think that by 2024, you're going to have to use VPN.”

    By 2024, people in the US will have to use a VPN because of ISP-level internet filtering and censorship.

  4. Mostly true Prediction 31 March 2020
    “Censoring anyone (let alone a head of state) in this way will push people towards censorship-resistant platforms.”

    Censoring anyone in this way, let alone a head of state, will push people towards censorship-resistant platforms.

  5. Mixed Prediction 30 March 2020
    “When checks hit, people will spend on consumer staples.”

    When US stimulus checks arrive, people will spend them on consumer staples, after which prices will rise.

All of them

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