The tail index alpha for pandemics is well below 1.

True: peer-reviewed or published statistical estimates of the tail index α of the distribution of pandemic fatalities (for example from extreme-value or power-law fits) are clearly below 1, at roughly 0.75 or lower, with intervals that lie below 1. Mostly true: the point estimates are below 1 but closer to it (about 0.75–0.95), so 'well below' is slightly overstated. Mixed: the estimates are below 1 under some methods or datasets but about 1 or above under others. Mostly false: the estimates are near 1, or the evidence is too uncertain to support 'well below 1'. False: the estimates show α of 1 or more.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Scientific comment on “Tail risk of contagious diseases” arXiv (ar5iv render) · 1 January 2001

   “the power law, with \(u\simeq 33,000\) and \(\alpha=0.344\) (\(p-\)value \(0.21\))”

2. E2 Tail of the distribution of fatalities in epidemics arXiv · 31 January 2026

   “We have shown that there is not enough empirical evidence that the fatalities caused by epidemics along history follow a fat-tailed distribution.”

3. E3 Tail risk of contagious diseases - Nature Physics Nature Physics (Springer Nature) · 25 May 2020 Own record

   “By analysing data for pandemic outbreaks spanning over the past 2500 years, we show that the related distribution of fatalities is strongly fat-tailed”

4. E4 Intensity and frequency of extreme novel epidemics University of Padova research repository (IRIS) · 2021

   “Historical observations covering four orders of magnitude of epidemic intensity follow a common probability distribution with a slowly decaying power-law tail (generalized Pareto distribution, asymptotic exponent = -0.71).”

E1 reports one power-law fit with alpha of 0.344, E4 reports an exponent of -0.71 for epidemic intensity rather than fatality counts, and E2 says only that the evidence for a fat-tailed distribution is not enough. No evidence item gives an alpha estimate of about 1 or above, so the evidence does not settle which category of the criteria applies.