Use of Washington DC bike lanes has been declining, according to numbers Cowen has seen.

Judge whether DC bike lane use was declining according to data available as of 2024-12-25. The claim is hedged ('as far as I can tell'), but its substance is a downward trend in use. True: published counts, such as DDOT bike counter data, Capital Bikeshare ridership in bike lanes, or Census/ACS bike commuting figures for DC, show a decline over the recent years before December 2024 (for example, 2022–2024 compared with earlier years, or year over year). Mostly true: the data show a decline on most measures or counters, or since a pre-pandemic peak, with minor exceptions. Mixed: the measures disagree (some show declines, others growth), or use is roughly flat. Mostly false: use was declining only on a narrow measure or a few counters, or only during a pandemic-era dip, while overall use was stable or rising. False: the available data show DC bike lane use or cycling volumes clearly rising over the relevant recent period.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Bike lanes are not about bikes - Marginal REVOLUTION Marginal Revolution (Tyler Cowen blog) · 21 November 2024 Own record

   “the portion of D.C. residents who bike to work peaked in 2017 and has decreased each year since, falling from 5 percent to 3 percent.”

2. E2 What's Missing On Bike To Work Day? Data. | WNYC WNYC

   “The U.S. Census says 3.1 percent of commuters in the District bicycle to work, up from 1.2 percent in 2000.”

3. E3 What's Missing On Bike To Work Day? Data. | WNYC WNYC

   “District-wide bicycling has increased 10 to 20 percent per year since DDOT began manual counts in 2004, Sebastian said.”

4. E4 What's Missing On Bike To Work Day? Data. | WNYC WNYC

   “We’ve seen increases of 200 percent, 300 percent.”

5. E5 For Council 2024 DDOT Performance Oversight Pre- ... District Department of Transportation (response to DC Council performance oversight questions) · 2024

   “the increased share of residents choosing to walk or bike (15.4% in 2022 from 11.4% in 2021) indicates that the strengthening of our bikeway network, increased installation of capital bikeshare stations, and implementation of bus lanes has increased the number of District residents choosing those forms of transportation.”

6. E6 For Council 2024 DDOT Performance Oversight Pre- ... District Department of Transportation (response to DC Council performance oversight questions) · 2024

   “Bicycling is the only mode other than telework to increase during the pandemic (4% increase in bicycling across all types of trips) according to Nelson Nygaard’s DC Travel Trends Report (2023).”

7. E7 Biking Outpaces Transit Use in DC Planetizen · 4 September 2024

   “CaBi had its highest ridership year ever in 2023, with 4.5 million trips, and is already up 31% through July of this year compared to the same time period in 2023.”

8. E8 Biking Outpaces Transit Use in DC Planetizen · 4 September 2024

   “shared fleet device program operators—including Lime, Lyft, Spin, and Veo—saw a record-breaking 6.7 million trips in DC in 2023 and have seen a 17% increase so far in 2024 through June.”

E1 is Cowen's own post, so it is not independent. Cowen's post [E1] says the share of DC residents who bike to work peaked in 2017 and fell each year to 3 percent, which supports a decline on the commute-share measure. Independent sources point the other way on volume. Capital Bikeshare had its highest ridership year in 2023 and was up 31% in 2024 through July (E7). Shared-device trips set a record in 2023 and were up 17% in 2024 through June (E8). DDOT also reports more bicycling during the pandemic and a rise in the share of residents choosing to walk or bike from 2021 to 2022 (E5, E6). Because the measures disagree, with commute share apparently falling while trip volumes rose, the claim resolves as mixed under the criteria.