Tyler Cowen said he was pretty sure new schools would make up below 1%, or certainly below 2%, of higher education.

Read 'new schools' as higher-education institutions founded recently (roughly in the last decade or two), as framed in the source context, and measure their share of US higher education by enrolment (or by number of institutions if that is what the context states). True: data (IPEDS/NCES or similar) as of around March 2026 show new schools at below 1% of enrolment. Mostly true: the share is between 1% and 2%, consistent with 'certainly below 2%'. Mixed: the share is about 2–3%. Mostly false: the share is about 3–5%. False: the share is above 5%.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Reforming State Authorization of Colleges to Boost Competition and Lower Tuition - FREOPP FREOPP · 30 September 2026

   “Just one percent of four-year college students attend a school that formed in the 21st century.”

2. E2 We need a wave of new colleges - The Boston Globe The Boston Globe · 21 September 2026

   “Only 2 percent of college-goers attend colleges that formed in the last two decades.”

3. E3 More Startup Universities Can Revive Higher Education Forbes · 26 September 2025

   “the PSC report notes that 98% of college students attend a college that is more than 20 years old.”

E1 says about 1% of four-year college students attend a school formed in the 21st century. E3 reports a PSC report finding that 98% of students attend a college more than 20 years old, which leaves about 2% at newer schools. E2 also gives 2% for colleges formed in the last two decades. Together these put the share at about 1–2%, at or below the claim's "certainly below 2%" bound. That is not clearly below 1%, so the verdict is mostly true rather than true.