Since the 2008-09 crisis, central banks worldwide have bought about $16 trillion of financial assets, putting about $16 trillion of liquidity into financial markets.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Measure the cumulative increase in central bank holdings of financial assets from QE and balance-sheet expansion, from 2008 to late 2018. At minimum this covers the Fed, ECB, BoJ and BoE, with others included where data allow. 'About $16 trillion' is a rough figure. True: credible estimates fall between about $13.5 trillion and $18.5 trillion. Mostly true: $12–13.5 trillion or $18.5–20 trillion, or the figure fits total central bank balance sheets rather than purchases specifically. Mixed: $10–12 trillion or $20–23 trillion. Mostly false: the figure only fits a different measure, such as total balance-sheet size including pre-crisis holdings, while actual purchases were well below $10 trillion. False: estimates of post-2008 purchases are far from $16 trillion (below $8 trillion or above $25 trillion).
Set before the research began.
Evidence (3)
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E1 Quantitative Easing and Exuberance in Stock Markets: Evidence from the euro area (DNB Working Paper No. 660) De Nederlandsche Bank · December 2019
“As a result, the US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and Bank of England bought over $13 trillion worth of financial assets over the past decade, representing between 18 and 102% of their respective total GDP.”
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E2 Large-Scale Asset Purchases Federal Reserve Bank of New York
“March 18, 2009 | The FOMC announces an expansion of its asset purchase program, saying it will purchase a total of up to $1.25 trillion of agency MBS (an additional $750 billion) and up to $200 billion of agency debt”
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E3 Large-Scale Asset Purchases Federal Reserve Bank of New York
“June 22, 2011 | The FOMC announces it will complete purchases of $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the month and directs the Desk to continue reinvesting principal payments on all domestic securities in longer-term Treasury securities to maintain the size of the Federal Reserve’s portfolio at approximately $2.6 trillion.”
Reasoning
E1 is a De Nederlandsche Bank working paper, independent of Dalio. It estimates that the Fed, ECB, Bank of Japan and Bank of England together bought "over $13 trillion" of financial assets in the decade after the crisis. That puts the four main central banks at the boundary between the "true" range (about $13.5–18.5 trillion) and the "mostly true" range ($12–13.5 trillion). Purchases by other central banks, which the criteria allow, would probably push the total higher, but none of the evidence measures them. E2 and E3 give only the Fed's announced purchase caps and portfolio targets, not cumulative totals, so they don't settle the figure. Because the one independent estimate supports a figure near the lower end of "about $16 trillion", the claim resolves mostly true.
Cite this claim
Ray Dalio, “Since the 2008-09 crisis, central banks worldwide have bought about $16 trillion of financial assets, putting about $16 trillion of liquidity into financial markets.” (said 11 November 2018). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_7c140fe834bb, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_7c140fe834bb
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More factual claims by Ray Dalio
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Mostly false
“That has been true through all history.”
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Mostly true
“So when we look at history, we see that in all such periods, all the fiat currencies go down, okay?”
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Mostly true
“It takes in about $5 trillion, so it spends 40% more than it takes in.”
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Mostly true
“you could still have financial problems, like the breakdown of the monetary system in 1971, okay?”
The monetary system broke down in 1971 while the United States was still a dominant power.
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Resolved true
“one-third of our debt is held by foreigners, so that’s a different thing.”
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