With interest rates near zero in the US and below zero in Europe and Japan, the implied multiple on a bond is very high, more than 100 times.

The claim is that the implied price multiple on bonds (price divided by yield, i.e. 1/yield) was above 100 when US rates were near zero and European and Japanese rates were below zero, as of October 2020. True: in October 2020 the relevant yields (for example short-term US Treasury yields and comparable rates) were below 1%, making 1/yield greater than 100, and the yields on major European and Japanese government bonds were zero or negative (an infinite or undefined multiple). Mostly true: the multiple is above 100 for the short-term rates Dalio plausibly meant, and was much lower for longer US maturities (for example the 10-year at roughly 0.8% gives a multiple of about 120). Mixed: only some of the cited rates support a multiple above 100. Mostly false: the relevant yields were mostly above 1% (multiple below 100), with only a narrow segment supporting the claim. False: the rate conditions did not hold (US rates not near zero, or European and Japanese rates not at or below zero), or the multiple was well below 100.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 par-yield-curve-rates-2020-2022.csv U.S. Department of the Treasury · 12 September 2025

   “Date,1 Mo,2 Mo,3 Mo,4 Mo,6 Mo,1 Yr,2 Yr,3 Yr,5 Yr,7 Yr,10 Yr,20 Yr,30 Yr 1/2/20,1.53,1.55,1.54,,1.57,1.56,1.58,1.59,1.67,1.79,1.88,2.19,2.33”

2. E2 Tradeweb Government Bond Update – October 2020 Tradeweb · 5 November 2020

   “In Germany, the 10-year Bund yield declined by 10 basis points to finish October at -0.63%.”

3. E3 Tradeweb Government Bond Update – October 2020 Tradeweb · 5 November 2020

   “The mid-yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds climbed 2.5 basis points to close at 0.04%.”

4. E4 Tradeweb Government Bond Update – October 2020 Tradeweb · 5 November 2020

   “the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury increased by 18 basis points to end the month at 0.86%”

5. E5 Fixed Income Monthly Commentary — October 2020 Diamond Hill Capital Management · 9 November 2020

   “| TENURE | YIELD | |---|---| | 2-year | 0.15% |”

The cited rates support a multiple above 100 for US bonds. The 10-year Treasury ended October 2020 at 0.86%, a multiple of about 116 (E4), and an October 2020 commentary lists the 2-year at 0.15%, about 667 (E5). The German 10-year Bund finished October at -0.63% (E2), which supports the claim of negative European yields. However, the Japanese 10-year yield closed at 0.04% (E3), slightly above zero rather than below it, although its implied multiple was still far above 100. The quoted portion of E1 shows only January 2020 rates, so it does not bear on October 2020. These are end-of-month figures, a few days after the 25 October date the claim is judged as of.