Marcus said he thinks the chance that "it" (the development under discussion, which the quoted passage does not name) will come out of large language models is zero.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Reasoning
The referent of "it" is unnamed in the claim and no horizon is given, so it cannot be tested.
Cite this claim
Gary Marcus, “Marcus said he thinks the chance that "it" (the development under discussion, which the quoted passage does not name) will come out of large language models is zero.” (said 2025). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_74d324b9eaa2, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_74d324b9eaa2
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Gary Marcus
-
Resolved true
“GPT-5 by itself won’t be a general purpose artificial general intelligence capable of taking on arbitrary tasks.”
GPT-5 by itself will not be a general-purpose AGI capable of arbitrary tasks.
-
Resolved true
“We will not see artificial general intelligence this year, despite claims by Elon Musk to the contrary.”
Artificial general intelligence will not be achieved in 2025.
-
Mostly true
“But will we see a mindblowing GPT this year? I doubt it.”
Marcus doubted that a mindblowing GPT model would be released in 2024.
-
Resolved false
“my bet: hybrid models will pull ahead next year.”
Gary Marcus bet that hybrid (neurosymbolic) AI models would pull ahead in 2022.
-
Resolved true
“I don’t think it’s going to happen in the next five years.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.