AI disruption of programming will happen fast.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Reasoning
'Fast' is undefined and there is no horizon.
Cite this claim
Dario Amodei, “AI disruption of programming will happen fast.” (said 11 November 2024). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_6dafdc08a783, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_6dafdc08a783
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Dario Amodei
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Mostly true
“I do think in the short run it will augment and increase the productivity of coders rather than replacing them.”
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Mostly false
“We believe AI for biology is on a similar exponential trend.”
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Mostly true
“We're gonna be fine. The-- the impact of this designation is fairly small.”
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Resolved false
“where AI is writing 90 percent of the code”
Within three to six months of March 2025, AI will be writing 90 percent of code.
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Resolved false
“And then in twelve months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code”
Within twelve months of March 2025, AI may be writing essentially all of the code.
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.