ClaimsRodney Brooks

“It is still a long way from full adoption of IPv6.”

Rodney Brooks, blog author 1 January 2018 My Dated Predictions (rodneybrooks.com) archived copy

Factual Technology

As of the end of 2017, IPv6 adoption was far from complete, with network traffic categories on IPv6 ranging from under 2% to just over 20%.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

True: measurements from end-2017 (e.g. Google, AMS-IX or the other traffic categories Brooks cites) show IPv6 well short of full adoption, with category shares from below 2% to just over 20%. Mostly true: adoption was far from complete, but the cited range is off slightly (by a few percentage points at either end). Mixed: adoption was far from complete, but the stated range is materially wrong. Mostly false: adoption was substantially more advanced than stated (e.g. most categories far above 20%). False: IPv6 was at or near full adoption at end-2017.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 What drives IPv6 deployment? ARIN (Vault archive; author writes from APNIC measurements) · 6 June 2018

    “By the end of 2017, the level of IPv6 deployment was measured at some 18% of the Internet, but there has been no significant further movement in that number across the first four months of 2018.”

  2. E2 SG20-TD613/GEN ITU-T Study Group 20 (contribution by Sébastien Ziegler, Mandat International) · 24 January 2018

    “by December 2017, Google servers received up to 21% of Internet traffic based on IPv6, from only 14% one year earlier.”

  3. E3 What stops IPv6 traffic in a dual-stack ISP? | APNIC Blog APNIC Blog (authors Enric Pujol and Philipp Richter) · 13 June 2017

    “we see that IPv6 traffic accounts only for a small fraction of total traffic at several large Internet Exchange Points (IXPs) (for example, 2% at AMS-IX and 7% at SeattleIX).”

  4. E4 What stops IPv6 traffic in a dual-stack ISP? | APNIC Blog APNIC Blog (authors Enric Pujol and Philipp Richter) · 13 June 2017

    “While some ISPs report IPv6 traffic shares of between 20% and 40% within their network”

Reasoning

An ITU-T document says that by December 2017 Google servers received up to 21% of traffic over IPv6 (E2). APNIC measurements cited by ARIN put end-2017 IPv6 deployment at about 18% of the Internet (E1). A mid-2017 APNIC Blog post reports IPv6 at only about 2% of traffic at AMS-IX (E3). Together these support the upper end of "just over 20%" and a lower end near 2%, with IPv6 clearly far from full adoption. The 2% exchange-point figure [E3] is from mid-2017 and is close to, though not below, the stated "under 2%", so it does not materially change the range.

Cite this claim

Rodney Brooks, “As of the end of 2017, IPv6 adoption was far from complete, with network traffic categories on IPv6 ranging from under 2% to just over 20%.” (said 1 January 2018). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_6af6bbb8e1c7, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_6af6bbb8e1c7

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Rodney Brooks, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

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  5. Resolved true Factual 22 June 2023
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All of them

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