Yudkowsky said he does not think we will live in the "sane world" that would "shut it all down and work on human intelligence enhancement", and that he thinks we are all going to die.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Reasoning
Open-ended doom prediction with no horizon that hasn't happened.
Cite this claim
Eliezer Yudkowsky, “Yudkowsky said he does not think we will live in the "sane world" that would "shut it all down and work on human intelligence enhancement", and that he thinks we are all going to die.” (said 6 April 2023). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_675d7a209c02, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_675d7a209c02
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Eliezer Yudkowsky
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Resolved false
“The current crop of people will not try it.”
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Resolved true
“Alignment will not be solved in a few years.”
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Resolved true
“even if GPT-5 doesn’t end the world, which I agree is like more than 50% of where my probability mass lies”
GPT-5 will not end the world, with more than 50% of Yudkowsky's probability on that outcome.
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Mostly true
“Most AI researchers will not want to make unFriendly AIs.”
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Mixed
“Beating GPT-4 on GI just forces OpenAI to release 4.5.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.