Yudkowsky said he thinks Artificial Intelligence is the road we will end up taking into "that challenge", which the surrounding text describes as the way out of the high-mortality phase of the life cycle and probably the single most dangerous risk we face.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
Reasoning
A prediction about the route to superintelligence with no horizon.
Cite this claim
Eliezer Yudkowsky, “Yudkowsky said he thinks Artificial Intelligence is the road we will end up taking into "that challenge", which the surrounding text describes as the way out of the high-mortality phase of the life cycle and probably the single most dangerous risk we face.” (said 2008). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_655846dafe3f, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_655846dafe3f
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Eliezer Yudkowsky
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Mostly false
“So probably Paul’s going to win, but slight moral victory.”
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Mixed
“Beating GPT-4 on GI just forces OpenAI to release 4.5.”
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Resolved false
“The current crop of people will not try it.”
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Resolved true
“Alignment will not be solved in a few years.”
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Resolved true
“even if GPT-5 doesn’t end the world, which I agree is like more than 50% of where my probability mass lies”
GPT-5 will not end the world, with more than 50% of Yudkowsky's probability on that outcome.
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.