By March 2023 it was clear that large language models were the next big thing in AI.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Judged as of the claim date, against the situation in March 2023. True: by March 2023 there was broad recognition across the AI field and the tech industry that LLMs were the dominant new development. Evidence would include widespread adoption of ChatGPT, the GPT-4 release in March 2023, major industry pivots and investment, and mainstream coverage calling LLMs the next big thing. Mostly true: the recognition was dominant but came slightly later, or was not quite universal. Mixed: the field was substantially split on whether LLMs were the next big thing. Mostly false: LLMs were prominent but widely seen in March 2023 as a hype bubble rather than clearly the next big thing. False: LLMs were not a leading focus of AI attention by March 2023.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (3)
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E1 OpenAI releases GPT-4, a multimodal AI that it claims is state-of-the-art | TechCrunch TechCrunch · 14 March 2023
“OpenAI has released a powerful new image- and text-understanding AI model, GPT-4, that the company calls “the latest milestone in its effort in scaling up deep learning.””
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E2 Hype or fear: the AI debate examined CSIRO
“It's clear 2023 has become ‘the year of AI’. Since ChatGPT was launched late last year, a plethora of evangelists and doomsayers have taken the opportunity to tell us exactly how artificial intelligence (AI) will change the world.”
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E3 Booming Venture Capital Investment in Generative AI: Considerations for Investors and Companies Bennett Jones · 26 June 2023
“The Wall Street Journal describes the current environment as "ChatGPT fever . . . Amid broader venture-capital doldrums, it is boom times for startups touting generative artificial intelligence tech."”
Reasoning
E1 reports that OpenAI released GPT-4 on 14 March 2023. E2 (CSIRO) calls 2023 "the year of AI" since ChatGPT's launch, and E3 cites the Wall Street Journal describing "ChatGPT fever" and boom times for generative AI startups. Taken together, these show LLMs were a leading focus of AI attention during 2023. However, E2 and E3 date from June 2023, so the evidence of broad, near-universal recognition specifically by March is somewhat less direct.
Cite this claim
Rodney Brooks, “By March 2023 it was clear that large language models were the next big thing in AI.” (said 1 January 2024). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_5bc8bc036841, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_5bc8bc036841
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
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“@yejinchoinka is providing a “common sense” rebuttal on the @TED stage.”
Yejin Choi gave a "common sense" rebuttal on the TED stage in April 2023.
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“In essence ChatGPT is picking the most likely word to follow all those that precede it, whether it is the words in a human input prompt, or what it has already generated itself.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.