Technological advances such as antibiotics and improved sanitation freed us from the prevalence of plagues, as Joy acknowledges.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
What would count as true or false
Two parts: (a) that technological advances such as antibiotics and improved sanitation freed us from the prevalence of plagues; (b) that Bill Joy acknowledges this. True if historical/medical evidence supports that antibiotics and sanitation sharply reduced the prevalence of epidemic plagues AND Joy (in his writing, e.g., 'Why the Future Doesn't Need Us') acknowledges the point. Mostly true if (a) holds solidly and (b) holds substantially with a minor characterization gap. Mixed if one part holds and the other does not. Mostly false if the technology-caused-decline claim is overstated (e.g., sanitation mattered but attribution distorted) or Joy did not clearly acknowledge it. False if both parts are contradicted.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (5)
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E1 Mortality in the United States, 1900-1950 Public Health Reports (U.S. Public Health Service), via CDC Stacks · April 1953
“probably was mainly due to improved sanitation. The death rate for these causes declined 96 percent between 1900 and 1950, from 154.7 deaths per 100,000 population to 6.2 per 100,000.”
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E2 Mortality in the United States, 1900-1950 Public Health Reports (U.S. Public Health Service), via CDC Stacks · April 1953
“Some of its most dramatic results have been demonstrated for certain diseases of great virulence, like Rocky Mountain spotted fever, psittacosis, plague, and typhus fever”
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E3 Epidemiology of Human Plague in the United States, 1900–2012 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Emerging Infectious Diseases journal · January 2015
“After the introduction of antibiotics, the overall proportion of plague infections that resulted in death decreased substantially, from 66% to 16% (Table 2), albeit incrementally.”
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E4 Epidemiology of Human Plague in the United States, 1900–2012 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Emerging Infectious Diseases journal · January 2015
“During 1926–1964, the geographic range of disease expanded rapidly, while the total number of reported cases fell.”
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E5 Epidemiology of Human Plague in the United States, 1900–2012 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Emerging Infectious Diseases journal · January 2015
“These shifts reflect changes in the populations at risk, the advent of antibiotics, and improved detection of more clinically indistinct forms of infection.”
Reasoning
Independent public-health sources partly support part (a). E1 says a 96% fall in death rates for certain causes between 1900 and 1950 was probably mainly due to improved sanitation, but the quote does not say which causes. E5 shows that the proportion of plague infections ending in death fell after antibiotics were introduced, though it measures deaths among infections, not how common plague was, and E7 names several factors behind the changes in U.S. plague. No evidence addresses part (b), whether Bill Joy acknowledged the point in his writing. No evidence item addresses part (b), whether Joy acknowledged the point, so the claim could not be fully assessed against the criteria.
Cite this claim
Ray Kurzweil, “Technological advances such as antibiotics and improved sanitation freed us from the prevalence of plagues, as Joy acknowledges.” (said 23 October 2000). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_5b079927dde9, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_5b079927dde9
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
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