The People's Bank of China did not push the yuan down in August 2019.
Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge said mostly false; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Judge as of 2019-08-16, about the yuan's fall past 7 per US dollar in early August 2019. 'Pushing down' means active steps by the PBOC to weaken the yuan: setting daily fixings clearly weaker than market or model expectations to lead the decline, selling yuan, or official statements that it sought depreciation. Letting a market-driven decline happen, or slowing it, is not pushing it down. TRUE: credible analysis of the fixings and market activity shows the decline was market-driven, for example by tariff news, with the PBOC following the market or leaning against the fall (fixings stronger than expected, measures to support the yuan). MOSTLY TRUE: the PBOC mostly followed the market, but there is a small sign of deliberate tolerance, such as one fixing weaker than expected. MIXED: credible analysts are roughly evenly split, or the PBOC signalled it would accept a weaker yuan without actively driving it. MOSTLY FALSE: the evidence shows the PBOC deliberately allowed or signalled the break of 7, for example a policy decision to stop defending the level reported by credible sources, so 'did not push' understates its role. FALSE: the evidence shows the PBOC actively drove the yuan down, for example with fixings set weaker than market expectations to lead the move, or direct intervention to weaken it.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 China’s Central Bank Hits Milestone as Yuan ‘Breaks 7’ Caixin Global · 8 August 2019
“Recent RMB depreciation since the beginning of August has been driven and determined by market forces and reflects shifts in market dynamics and volatilities in global foreign exchange markets amid global economic developments and escalating trade frictions,”
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E2 China PBOC sets yuan midpoint at stronger than 7 per dollar CNBC · 6 August 2019
“On Tuesday morning, the People's Bank of China set the yuan fixing at 6.9683. That was stronger than the 6.9736 that had been expected, according to a Reuters estimate.”
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E3 China’s Central Bank Hits Milestone as Yuan ‘Breaks 7’ Caixin Global · 8 August 2019
“The central bank set off a global panic on Monday when it set the daily reference rate for the yuan, also known as the renminbi (RMB), 229 pips weaker at 6.9225, the first fixing below 6.9 this year.”
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E4 RMB reaches 7.0; US names China a manipulator Jeffrey Frankel (Harvard Kennedy School economist), blog · 12 August 2019
“It is fair to interpret Beijing’s August 4 decision to let the exchange rate break the 7.0 barrier as a deliberate response by Chinese leaders to Trump’s latest tariff offensive.”
Reasoning
The evidence partly supports the claim. The PBOC said the August depreciation was driven by market forces and trade frictions (E1), and on Tuesday it set the fixing stronger than the Reuters estimate, which leans against the fall (E2). Against that, Monday's fixing was set 229 pips weaker, past 6.9, and "set off a global panic" (E3), though the quote does not compare it with market expectations. Economist Jeffrey Frankel also reads Beijing's August 4 move as a deliberate decision to let the yuan break 7.0 in response to the tariffs (E4). Together, the evidence is split: some points to the PBOC tolerating the break of 7 [E3][E4], and some to it following or leaning against the market [E1][E2]. None of it clearly shows the PBOC actively driving the decline, which puts the claim at mixed.
Cite this claim
Ray Dalio, “The People's Bank of China did not push the yuan down in August 2019.” (said 16 August 2019). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_59f590739613, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_59f590739613
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More factual claims by Ray Dalio
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Mostly false
“That has been true through all history.”
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Mostly true
“you could still have financial problems, like the breakdown of the monetary system in 1971, okay?”
The monetary system broke down in 1971 while the United States was still a dominant power.
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Resolved true
“one-third of our debt is held by foreigners, so that’s a different thing.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.