The M9 tranche of the PPSI deal is just under $6 million, less than 1% of the original deal size.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
True: the offering documents for the PPSI deal Burry referred to show that the M9 tranche's original principal balance was just under $6 million (roughly $5.5–6.0 million) and less than 1% of the deal's total original principal. Mostly true: the tranche was less than 1% of the deal but its size was slightly off, within about 10% of $6 million (for example $5.4–6.6 million). Mixed: one of the two figures holds and the other is clearly wrong. Mostly false: the tranche was small but well away from $6 million, or was between 1% and 2% of the deal. False: both figures are clearly wrong, or the M9 tranche did not exist as described.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (5)
-
E1 Scion Capital's 2006 Letter to Shareholders GuruFocus · 30 December 2015 Own record
“Again, examining PPSI 2005-WLL1 M9 – the BBB- tranche – we see it has a size of $5,894,000.”
-
E2 Scion Capital's 2006 Letter to Shareholders GuruFocus · 30 December 2015 Own record
“For instance, today, the current face value of the AAA tranches in PPSI 2005-WLL1, which was issued in March of 2005, is roughly $243,691,000 versus the original face value of $667,705,000 due to a high rate of refinancing.”
-
E3 Was Burry's 'Primer on Mortgage Short' Convincing in 2006? RationalWalk · 22 May 2010
“Dr. Burry clearly outlines the structure of the securitizations in question, documents the very thin nature of the lower tranches, and shows how a modest level of default could easily hit the higher “investment grade” tranches.”
-
E4 Scion 2006 4q Rmbs Cds Primer and Faq Scribd (hosting a Scion Capital primer) · 7 November 2006 Own record
“Again, examining PPSI 2005-WLL1 M9 - the BBB- tranche - we see it has a size of $5,894,000.”
-
E5 Scion Capital Subprime Mortgage Short Primer studylib.net (hosts a copy of a Scion Capital document dated November 7, 2006) · 7 November 2006 Own record
“Again, examining PPSI 2005-WLL1 M9 - the BBB- tranche - we see it has a size of $5,894,000.”
Reasoning
Scion Capital's own November 2006 primer and letter give the PPSI 2005-WLL1 M9 tranche as $5,894,000 (E1, E5, E8) and the AAA tranches' original face value as $667,705,000 (E3). By that arithmetic, M9 would be under 1% of the deal. But every figure comes from Burry's own documents, not from the offering documents the criteria require. The one independent source (E4) only describes the lower tranches as thin in general terms and gives no figures, so the claim cannot be checked independently.
Cite this claim
Michael Burry, “The M9 tranche of the PPSI deal is just under $6 million, less than 1% of the original deal size.” (said 2006). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_5903c7e23aab, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_5903c7e23aab
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More factual claims by Michael Burry
-
Mostly false
“The Superinvestors of Graham & Doddsville all lost money 3 years in a row during the mid-1970s.”
The Superinvestors of Graham & Doddsville all lost money three years in a row during the mid-1970s.
-
Mostly true
“It’s a perfect storm for Build-A-Bear (BBW), a one-of-one retailer now heavily shorted, 25% of the float, almost 9 days to cover.”
-
Resolved true
“Here is the link where I made the case last week that beneath the surface the October 6, 2026 record close in the S&P 500 looks more like the March 2000 top than any other record high since 1980.”
-
Mostly true
“October 6, 2026 stands head to head with March 2000 as the two most narrow, thin, soft new highs”
-
Mostly true
“Both stocks have retraced essentially all their gains since Trump’s election, and they put in a giant head-and-shoulders-and-elbows top for added emphasis.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.