ClaimsEliezer Yudkowsky

“the thing I would worry about is if is this how things are scaling then - jumping out ahead and trying not to be wrong in the same way that I've been wrong before - maybe GPT-5 is more unambiguously a general intelligence”

Eliezer Yudkowsky, interviewed by Lex Fridman March 2023 "Dangers of AI and the End of Human Civilization" Yudkowsky on Lex Fridman (LessWrong) archived copy

Prediction AI capabilities

If this is how things are scaling, GPT-5 may be more unambiguously a general intelligence.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

'May be more unambiguously a general intelligence' is vague and hedged, with no clear test.

Cite this claim

Eliezer Yudkowsky, “If this is how things are scaling, GPT-5 may be more unambiguously a general intelligence.” (said March 2023). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_58656e662102, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_58656e662102

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Eliezer Yudkowsky, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Eliezer Yudkowsky

  1. Mixed Prediction 5 March 2024
    “Beating GPT-4 on GI just forces OpenAI to release 4.5.”

    If a rival AI developer beats GPT-4 on general intelligence, OpenAI will be forced to release GPT-4.5.

  2. Mostly true Prediction February 2023
    “But I do feel quite confident that the upper range of that untapped potential is insufficient to outsmart all the living humans and implement the scenario that I'm worried about.”

    Yudkowsky said he felt quite confident that the upper range of the untapped potential of ChatGPT-style systems is insufficient to outsmart all living humans and carry out the catastrophe scenario he worries about.

  3. Resolved false Prediction 6 April 2023
    “The current crop of people will not try it.”

    The current AI developers will not try the alignment approach he described (filtering training data to nice examples and training on it).

  4. Mostly false Prediction 6 April 2023
    “So probably Paul’s going to win, but slight moral victory.”

    Paul Christiano will probably win his forecast disagreement with Yudkowsky on an AI getting IMO gold by 2025, with prediction-market odds then running around 30%.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 6 April 2023
    “Alignment will not be solved in a few years.”

    AI alignment will not be solved within a few years.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.