AI smarter than almost all humans at almost all things will require millions of chips and at least tens of billions of dollars, and is most likely to arrive in 2026-2027.
Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Reasoning
deadline 2027 is after 2026-11-04
Cite this claim
Dario Amodei, “AI smarter than almost all humans at almost all things will require millions of chips and at least tens of billions of dollars, and is most likely to arrive in 2026-2027.” (said 13 October 2022). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_563c9dea407e, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_563c9dea407e
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Dario Amodei
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“We're gonna be fine. The-- the impact of this designation is fairly small.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.