Roubini began worrying about the US economy and financial system in 2006 after seeing an unsustainable housing bubble in home prices and mortgages.

Judge as of 2009, against Roubini's dated writings and speeches from 2006 and earlier (for example RGE Monitor blog posts, columns, and his September 2006 IMF talk). The claim has three parts: (a) in 2006 he was publicly worried about the US economy and financial system; (b) the worry stemmed from a housing bubble he called unsustainable; (c) the bubble he described covered home prices and mortgage or housing-market excesses. TRUE: dated 2006 material shows warnings that cover all three parts. MOSTLY TRUE: all three parts hold, but the record shows he had already warned about a housing bubble before 2006 (for example in 2005), so 'started in 2006' is slightly off; or one detail (such as mortgages specifically) is missing from his 2006 statements. MIXED: his 2006 material warns about the housing bubble but not about wider risks to the economy or financial system, or the reverse. MOSTLY FALSE: his housing and financial warnings first appear clearly only in 2007 or later, with at most passing references in 2006. FALSE: his dated 2006 statements dismiss or play down a housing bubble, or show no such concern.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Economics - Aug 17 Resilience.org (Energy Bulletin), reprinting Stephen Mihm, New York Times · 17 August 2008

   “On Sept. 7, 2006, Nouriel Roubini, an economics professor at New York University, stood before an audience of economists at the International Monetary Fund and announced that a crisis was brewing.”

2. E2 Vote here for the Revere Award for Economics Real-World Economics Review Blog · 7 April 2010

   “Nouriel Roubini on August 23, 2006 wrote: By itself this [house price] slump is enough to trigger a US recession.”

3. E3 Slow Housing Market Affects Economic Growth PBS NewsHour · 17 November 2006

   “a gloom-and-doomster who sees evidence all around him of a real estate bubble about to burst, starting with his own duplex loft”

4. E4 Vote here for the Revere Award for Economics Real-World Economics Review Blog · 7 April 2010

   “Nouriel Roubini in summer 2005 predicted that real home prices were likely to fall at least 30% over the next 3 years.”

Independent sources show that in 2006 Roubini publicly warned about housing and the wider economy. He told the IMF on 7 September 2006 that a crisis was brewing (E1). On 23 August 2006 he wrote that a house price slump alone could trigger a US recession (E2), and in November 2006 PBS described him as seeing a real estate bubble about to burst (E3). However, E4 says that in summer 2005 he predicted real home prices would fall at least 30%, so his housing-bubble warnings began before 2006. The quoted 2006 material also does not mention mortgage excesses specifically. The evidence of an earlier 2005 warning [E4] fits the criteria for mostly true rather than true.