ClaimsRay Dalio

“the size of the debt dwarfs that of any other debt crisis.”

Ray Dalio, Bridgewater founder, interviewed by Barron's June 2010 Barron's interview with Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates (Benzinga) archived copy

Factual Economics and markets

The size of the European sovereign debt dwarfs, that is, is far larger than, that of any other debt crisis.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

Judge as of June 2010. The claim says the European sovereign debt at the centre of the crisis (euro-area or troubled peripheral sovereign debt, as framed in context) was larger in absolute size than the debt involved in any earlier debt crisis (e.g. Latin American 1980s, Asian 1997, Russia 1998, Argentina 2001). True: comparable data (nominal or inflation-adjusted totals of the debt at issue) show the European debt was clearly larger than every earlier sovereign/debt crisis. Mostly true: larger than all earlier sovereign debt crises, but the comparison holds only on some reasonable measure (e.g. nominal, not relative to GDP), or another crisis was close in size. Mixed: larger on absolute measures but clearly not on the measure the context implies, or larger than most but not all comparable crises. Mostly false: larger only if a narrow or unusual definition of the debt is used, or a comparable crisis (e.g. the US 2007-08 debt/credit crisis) involved debt of similar or greater size. False: data show one or more earlier debt crises involved clearly larger debt on the measure used.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (9)

  1. E1 International response to European debt problems Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Governor Daniel K. Tarullo, testimony) · 20 May 2010

    “According to the EU, total available support through loans and credit lines, including potential bilateral IMF loans to member countries, could be as large as €750 billion (approximately $900 billion).”
  2. E2 International response to European debt problems Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Governor Daniel K. Tarullo, testimony) · 20 May 2010

    “This international financing package is the largest ever extended to a single country and amounts to about 50 percent of Greece's GDP.”
  3. E3 Comparing the Latin American and European Debt Crises Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (On the Economy blog) · 26 February 2015

    “Restrepo-Echavarria and Arias noted that these countries, rather than adjusting their borrowing and spending, saw debt increase from 30 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) on average in 1979 to nearly 50 percent for larger countries in 1982.”
  4. E4 Comparing the Latin American and European Debt Crises Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (On the Economy blog) · 26 February 2015

    “Debt had risen from 90 percent of GDP on average in 2000 to around 200 percent in 2009.”
  5. E5 International response to European debt problems Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (testimony of Governor Daniel K. Tarullo) · 20 May 2010

    “This international financing package is the largest ever extended to a single country and amounts to about 50 percent of Greece's GDP.”
  6. E6 International response to European debt problems Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (testimony of Governor Daniel K. Tarullo) · 20 May 2010

    “According to the EU, total available support through loans and credit lines, including potential bilateral IMF loans to member countries, could be as large as €750 billion (approximately $900 billion).”
  7. E7 Heading into Trouble: A Comparison of the Latin American Crises and the Euro Area's Current Crisis Banco de México (Working Paper 2014-17) · August 2014

    “We compare the experience of Latin American external debt crises, in particular the one in the 80s, with the current European one.”
  8. E8 Latin American Debt Crisis of the 1980s - Federal Reserve History Federal Reserve History (Federal Reserve System) · 22 November 2013

    “By 1982, the debt level reached $327 billion (FDIC 1997).”
  9. E9 Latin American Debt Crisis of the 1980s - Federal Reserve History Federal Reserve History (Federal Reserve System) · 22 November 2013

    “Between 1989 and 1994, private lenders forgave $61 billion in loans, about one third of the total outstanding debt.”

Reasoning

I could not settle this claim from the evidence given. Two pieces of evidence point toward an unusually large European problem. The EU's support package of up to €750 billion (E1/E6) is larger than the $327 billion of Latin American debt in 1982 (E8), and the Greek package was the largest ever extended to a single country (E2/E5). However, neither figure measures the European sovereign debt itself: one is available lending capacity and the other is a rescue package. No evidence gives totals for the other crises the criteria name, including Asia 1997, Russia 1998, Argentina 2001 and the US 2007-08 credit crisis, and the debt-to-GDP figures (E3, E4) do not compare absolute sizes across crises.

Cite this claim

Ray Dalio, “The size of the European sovereign debt dwarfs, that is, is far larger than, that of any other debt crisis.” (said June 2010). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_4fa0144d5840, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_4fa0144d5840

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Ray Dalio, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More factual claims by Ray Dalio

  1. Mostly false Factual 9 May 2026
    “That has been true through all history.”

    Throughout history, including before World War II, societies have generally had rising living standards and become richer.

  2. Mostly true Factual 9 May 2026
    “So when we look at history, we see that in all such periods, all the fiat currencies go down, okay?”

    Dalio said that history shows all fiat currencies go down in all such periods, which followed the interviewer's reference to times "where they can print the money".

  3. Mostly true Factual 9 May 2026
    “It takes in about $5 trillion, so it spends 40% more than it takes in.”

    The US government takes in about $5 trillion and spends about $7 trillion, about 40% more than it takes in.

  4. Mostly true Factual 9 May 2026
    “you could still have financial problems, like the breakdown of the monetary system in 1971, okay?”

    The monetary system broke down in 1971 while the United States was still a dominant power.

  5. Resolved true Factual 9 May 2026
    “one-third of our debt is held by foreigners, so that’s a different thing.”

    About one-third of US debt is held by foreigners.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.