ClaimsWarren Buffett

“Over time, insuring these jumbo risks should be profitable, though periodically they will bring on a terrible year.”

Warren Buffett, chairman, in shareholder letter 28 February 2002 Chairman's Letter (2001) (Berkshire Hathaway) archived copy

Prediction Their own work or organisation

Over time, Berkshire's insuring of jumbo risks should be profitable, though periodically it will bring a terrible year.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

Reasoning

Open-ended prediction with no horizon, and jumbo risk results not separately published.

Cite this claim

Warren Buffett, “Over time, Berkshire's insuring of jumbo risks should be profitable, though periodically it will bring a terrible year.” (said 28 February 2002). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_49baf894e25e, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_49baf894e25e

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Warren Buffett, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Warren Buffett

  1. Mostly true Prediction 4 May 2024
    “I feel very comfortable about the fact that it will be made by a board, that they’ve got loads of brainpower, they’ve got a dedication to an unusual institution, and they will figure things out.”

    Buffett said he feels very comfortable that the post-Buffett decision will be made by Berkshire's board, which he said has loads of brainpower and a dedication to an unusual institution and will figure things out.

  2. Resolved true Prediction 4 May 2024
    “But we have sold shares, and I would say that at the end of the year, I would think it extremely likely that Apple is the largest common stock holding we have now.”

    Apple will very likely still be Berkshire's largest common stock holding at the end of 2024, despite Berkshire having sold some shares.

  3. Resolved true Prediction 2007
    “In 2007, our results from the bread-and-butter lines of insurance will deteriorate, though I think they will remain satisfactory.”

    Berkshire's results from its bread-and-butter insurance lines will deteriorate in 2007, though Buffett said he thought they would remain satisfactory.

  4. Mostly true Prediction 28 February 2002
    “Ron Peltier has built this business for us, and it's likely he will make more acquisitions in 2002 and the years to come.”

    Ron Peltier will likely make more real estate brokerage acquisitions for Berkshire in 2002 and the following years.

  5. Mostly true Prediction 28 February 2002
    “Nevertheless we feel that overall the transaction will prove satisfactory for Berkshire.”

    Berkshire expects the FINOVA transaction overall to prove satisfactory for Berkshire.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.