ClaimsDario Amodei

“我觉得 A.S.L. 3 可能在今年或明年就会发生,A.S.L. 4 可能在 2025 到 2028 年间。”

Dario Amodei, Anthropic CEO, interviewee 12 April 2024 Transcript: Ezra Klein Interviews Dario Amodei (translation) (baoyu.io) archived copy

Prediction AI timelines and forecasting

AI Safety Level ASL-3 capabilities may arrive this year or next (2024 or 2025), and ASL-4 between 2025 and 2028.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

deadline 2028 is after 2026-11-04

Cite this claim

Dario Amodei, “AI Safety Level ASL-3 capabilities may arrive this year or next (2024 or 2025), and ASL-4 between 2025 and 2028.” (said 12 April 2024). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_4893cbfb5c80, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_4893cbfb5c80

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Dario Amodei, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Dario Amodei

  1. Resolved false Prediction 10 March 2025
    “where AI is writing 90 percent of the code”

    Within three to six months of March 2025, AI will be writing 90 percent of code.

  2. Resolved false Prediction 10 March 2025
    “And then in twelve months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code”

    Within twelve months of March 2025, AI may be writing essentially all of the code.

  3. Mostly true Prediction 10 March 2025
    “We may actually hit that this year”

    Anthropic's models may reach AI Safety Level 3 in 2025.

  4. Mostly false Prediction 23 September 2026
    “We believe AI for biology is on a similar exponential trend.”

    Amodei said that "we" believe AI for biology is on an exponential trend similar to the one he described for AI in mathematics.

  5. Mostly true Prediction 28 February 2026
    “We're gonna be fine. The-- the impact of this designation is fairly small.”

    Anthropic will be fine, and the impact of the supply chain risk designation on it will be fairly small.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.