Tyler Cowen said it now seems quite clear that the data the US Navy is picking up on unidentified aerial phenomena are real, not instrument errors or bad eyewitness reports.

Judge as of 2021-12-29. The claim says the Navy's UAP data reflect real physical objects or phenomena rather than sensor artifacts or eyewitness error. True if official US assessments by that date (for example the ODNI preliminary UAP assessment of June 2021) or other authoritative evidence show that most Navy UAP reports reflect real physical objects, detected across multiple sensors, and not instrument error. Mostly true if official sources say most reports 'probably' reflect physical objects while acknowledging some sensor errors or misperceptions. Mixed if the evidence is split, with some cases attributed to real objects and others to sensor artifacts, or official findings are inconclusive overall. Mostly false if the claim states as 'quite clear' something official sources treat as unresolved or largely unverified, or if notable cases had been plausibly explained as sensor or optical artifacts. False if authoritative analysis showed the data to be mainly instrument errors or misidentifications.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Preliminary Assessment: Unidentified Aerial Phenomena 25 ... Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) · 25 June 2021

   “Most of the UAP reported probably do represent physical objects given that a majority of UAP were registered across multiple sensors, to include radar, infrared, electro-optical, weapon seekers, and visual observation.”

2. E2 Preliminary Assessment: Unidentified Aerial Phenomena 25 ... Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) · 25 June 2021

   “In a limited number of incidents, UAP reportedly appeared to exhibit unusual flight characteristics. These observations could be the result of sensor errors, spoofing, or observer misperception and require additional rigorous analysis.”

3. E3 Pentagon task force's UFO report released — many cases remain unexplained CBS News · 25 June 2021

   “"From a safety of flight issue, we absolutely do believe that what we are seeing are not simply sensor artifacts. These are things that physically exist," a senior government official said.”

4. E4 Pentagon task force's UFO report released — many cases remain unexplained CBS News · 25 June 2021

   “Officials stressed, as does the report, that they were limited in their analysis by the nature of the data underlying the incidents, which came chiefly in the form of verbal reports that were only occasionally supported by video or photographic evidence.”

The June 2021 ODNI preliminary assessment says most reported UAP "probably" represent physical objects, because most were registered across multiple sensors (E1). The same report says some unusual-flight observations could come from sensor errors, spoofing or observer misperception (E2). A senior government official told CBS that what was being seen was "not simply sensor artifacts" and "physically exist[s]" (E3), although officials said the analysis was limited by data that was mostly verbal reporting (E4). This matches the "mostly true" criterion: official sources say most reports probably reflect physical objects, while acknowledging some sensor errors and misperceptions.