It will probably take about four or five years before AI passing the Turing test becomes obvious and no longer a question.

Hedged prediction ('probably like four or five years') that about four or five years from May 2022 (i.e., around 2026-2027) it becomes obvious and no longer a question that AI passes the Turing test. True if, by roughly 2026-2027, there is broad recognition (expert consensus/major assessments) that AI clearly passes the Turing test and this is no longer disputed. Mostly true if AI is widely regarded as passing the Turing test around that time with some residual debate. Mixed if the matter is genuinely contested. Mostly false if AI shows strong conversational ability but Turing-test passage remains an open question. False if AI clearly does not pass by then.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 AI Officially Passes the Turing Test, Landmark Study Shows Psychology Today (blog, The Future Brain, by Cami Rosso) · 26 May 2026

   “GPT-4.5 fooled humans 73% of the time, officially passing the Turing test.”

2. E2 Researchers dispute whether AI has passed the Turing Test | UC University of Canterbury (news) · 16 October 2026

   “When this is taken into account, we’d argue that no large language model has yet been shown to pass a test that follows the design in Turing’s original work.”

3. E3 Why No One Has Implemented the Turing Test: Identifying Turing’s Design and Putting it into Practice | Philosophy of Science | Cambridge Core Cambridge University Press (Philosophy of Science) · 28 October 2026

   “However, to the best of our knowledge, no LLM study conforms to Turing’s design, and so none provides a counterexample.”

4. E4 Why I’m not betting on Ray Kurzweil’s predictions, but I’m sure as hell listening Startup Daily (opinion, by Will Richardson, Giant Leap VC) · 25 August 2026

   “The acceleration since ChatGPT’s public launch in November 2022 has brought that specific 2029 date back into serious discussion rather than the original dismissal by his peers.”

Moved to not yet due on 2026-11-03: its criteria judge it in 2027 (four or five years from May 2022), and the question was still open when judged, so the outcome could still change. The judges' reading of the evidence at the time, which gave mixed: E1 (May 2026) reports a study in which GPT-4.5 fooled humans 73% of the time and calls this officially passing the Turing test. Later in 2026, University of Canterbury researchers (E2) and a peer-reviewed Philosophy of Science article (E3) say no LLM study has followed Turing's original design, so none has been shown to pass the test as Turing set it out. This means AI passing the test was still openly disputed in late 2026, not obvious or settled. Under the criteria, a genuinely contested question is rated mixed.