ClaimsEliezer Yudkowsky

“So the problem is, is that what you can learn on the weak systems may not generalize to the very strong systems”

Eliezer Yudkowsky, interviewee 30 March 2023 Lex Fridman Podcast #368 Eliezer Yudkowsky transcript (Podscript) archived copy

Prediction AI safety and alignment

Alignment findings from weak AI systems may not generalize to very strong AI systems.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

Hedged 'may not' claim with no horizon; essentially untestable.

Cite this claim

Eliezer Yudkowsky, “Alignment findings from weak AI systems may not generalize to very strong AI systems.” (said 30 March 2023). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_3a89482ecbbf, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_3a89482ecbbf

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More prediction claims by Eliezer Yudkowsky

  1. Resolved false Prediction 6 April 2023
    “The current crop of people will not try it.”

    The current AI developers will not try the alignment approach he described (filtering training data to nice examples and training on it).

  2. Resolved true Prediction 6 April 2023
    “Alignment will not be solved in a few years.”

    AI alignment will not be solved within a few years.

  3. Resolved true Prediction 6 April 2023
    “even if GPT-5 doesn’t end the world, which I agree is like more than 50% of where my probability mass lies”

    GPT-5 will not end the world, with more than 50% of Yudkowsky's probability on that outcome.

  4. Mostly true Prediction 2008
    “Most AI researchers will not want to make unFriendly AIs.”

    Most AI researchers will not want to make unFriendly AIs.

  5. Mixed Prediction 5 March 2024
    “Beating GPT-4 on GI just forces OpenAI to release 4.5.”

    If a rival AI developer beats GPT-4 on general intelligence, OpenAI will be forced to release GPT-4.5.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.