ClaimsMichael Burry

“The stock fell peak to trough about 98% during early 1930s, and yet radio’s growth never slowed for many more decades.”

Michael Burry, posting on X 22 February 2026 Post by @michaeljburry on X, 2026-02-22 (X)

Factual Economics and markets

RCA stock fell about 98% peak to trough in the early 1930s, while radio's growth continued for many more decades.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

There are two parts: (a) RCA common stock fell about 98% from peak to trough around 1929–1933; (b) radio adoption or industry growth kept going for decades afterwards. The peak-to-trough decline should be measured on split-adjusted prices. TRUE: historical price data show a decline of roughly 96–99% from the 1929 peak to the early-1930s low, and data on radio households, sets in use or industry revenue show continued growth through at least the 1940s–1950s. MOSTLY TRUE: (b) holds and the decline was 90–96%, or the trough fell slightly outside the 'early 1930s'. MIXED: one part holds and the other clearly does not. MOSTLY FALSE: the decline was 75–90%, or radio growth stalled for a significant period soon after. FALSE: the decline was under 75%, or radio's growth plainly stopped within a few years.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (10)

  1. E1 'Big Short' Investor Michael Burry Draws Parallel Between Nvidia and This 1920s Era Hot Stock: 'You Would Have Lost Money…' Yahoo Finance · 25 February 2026

    “But after peaking in 1929, the shares unraveled, plunging from 114.75 in September 1929 to 2.625 by May 1932 — a staggering 98% drop, noted Finaeon, formerly Global Financial Data.”
  2. E2 Historical statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1957 U.S. Census Bureau · 1960

    “of 28,048,219 occupied units with radio.”
  3. E3 Speech to Detroit Economic Club U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission · 29 October 2004

    “The share price of Radio Corporation of America - better known as RCA - increased from 85 in 1928 to 549 a year later.”
  4. E4 Speech to Detroit Economic Club U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission · 29 October 2004

    “By then, stock prices had fallen 85-90 percent from their peaks in 1929.”
  5. E5 Speech to Detroit Economic Club U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission · 29 October 2004

    “The share price of Radio Corporation of America - better known as RCA - increased from 85 in 1928 to 549 a year later.”
  6. E6 Speech to Detroit Economic Club U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission · 29 October 2004

    “By then, stock prices had fallen 85-90 percent from their peaks in 1929.”
  7. E7 RCA and the Roaring Twenties Finaeon (Bryan Taylor, Chief Economist) · 13 November 2023

    “After the 1929 peak, the stock collapsed, declining from 114.75 in September 1929 to 2.625 in May 1932, a 98% decline.”
  8. E8 [PDF] The Grand Divorce Smead Capital Management · 24 January 2017

    “The stock of RCA fell 95% from the market’s peak in 1929 to less than $5 share in 1932 at the bear market lows.”
  9. E9 The History of the Radio Industry in the United States to 1940 EH.Net Encyclopedia (Carole E. Scott) · 26 March 2008

    “by 1934, 60 percent of the nation’s households had radios.”
  10. E10 ensus Shows 95.6% Radio Homes (Broadcasting magazine, June 11, 1951) Broadcasting (trade magazine), reporting on US Census Bureau data · 11 June 1951

    “to the 1950 figure of 40,093,000.”

Reasoning

Finaeon's price history (E8, also reported in E1) shows RCA falling from 114.75 in September 1929 to 2.625 in May 1932, a 98% drop. That is within the 96–99% range for the early 1930s. Smead (E9) gives a somewhat lower 95%. Radio kept spreading: 60% of US households had radios by 1934 (E10), and a 1951 Census-based report was headlined 95.6% radio homes (E11). Both parts of the claim are therefore met.

Cite this claim

Michael Burry, “RCA stock fell about 98% peak to trough in the early 1930s, while radio's growth continued for many more decades.” (said 22 February 2026). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_387768712640, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_387768712640

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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All of them

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