Countries that concentrate wealth in a small number of families do worse over the long term.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Judged as of 2021, against economic research. True if the body of empirical research (cross-country studies of wealth concentration, family-controlled business groups, dynastic wealth or oligarchy, and long-run growth or development) consistently finds that countries where wealth is concentrated in a small number of families perform worse over the long term on growth, development or similar outcomes. Mostly true if most studies find this but with caveats (effect size, measures, exceptions). Mixed if the findings are genuinely split or depend heavily on context. Mostly false if the claim states as established a relationship that is only suggestive, correlational without causal support, or unproven. False if the research shows no such relationship or the opposite.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (3)
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E1 Corporate Governance, Economic Entrenchment and Growth Randall Morck, Daniel Wolfenzon, Bernard Yeung (forthcoming, Journal of Economic Literature, per the page) · April 2005
“wealth per se, but the “hands” in which control over corporate assets is concentrated.”
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E2 Family Control and the Rent-Seeking Society Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice (Baylor University) · 2004
“Table 2 illustrates a correlation, but is silent about what causes what.”
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E3 Chapter 7 Enterprise Models: Freestanding Firms versus Family Pyramids Not stated on page (book chapter by Randall Morck and Bernard Yeung)
“they have done so in Japan, South Korea, and elsewhere.”
Reasoning
E2 reports a correlation involving family control and says it is "silent about what causes what", but the quote does not say which way that correlation runs. It also does not describe the wider body of research. E1 and E4 as quoted do not show how family wealth concentration relates to long-term outcomes, so the evidence does not settle the claim under the criteria.
Cite this claim
Sam Altman, “Countries that concentrate wealth in a small number of families do worse over the long term.” (said 2021). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_3445a6c6c93d, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_3445a6c6c93d
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More factual claims by Sam Altman
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Resolved true
“America has repeatedly found ways to challenge this sort of concentration, and we need to do so again.”
America has repeatedly found ways to challenge concentration of wealth and power.
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Mostly true
“The very end of 2015, we announced it, and then the first day of work was like January of 2016.”
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Mostly true
“not until 2020 did we train GPT-3, which was the first model that I think actually was over some threshold of usability.”
OpenAI trained GPT-3 in 2020, which Altman considers the first model above a threshold of usability.
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Mostly true
“Absolutely. To go back to the analogy of electricity, there’s this amazing chart of what it cost to have an hour of light at night.”
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Resolved true
“that it is so capable that it is discovering new knowledge, doing science, able to add huge economic value, create entire pieces of complex software.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.