ClaimsEliezer Yudkowsky

“a deliberately designed AI is likely to begin as a set of subsystems in a relatively primitive and undeveloped state”

Eliezer Yudkowsky, MIRI researcher, paper author 2007 Levels of Organization in General Intelligence (MIRI) archived copy

Prediction AI capabilities

A deliberately designed AI is likely to begin as a set of subsystems in a primitive, undeveloped state already designed to form a functioning supersystem.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

Reasoning

Prediction about how a future AI would begin, with no horizon and no clear test.

Cite this claim

Eliezer Yudkowsky, “A deliberately designed AI is likely to begin as a set of subsystems in a primitive, undeveloped state already designed to form a functioning supersystem.” (said 2007). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_3349d747230b, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_3349d747230b

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Eliezer Yudkowsky, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Eliezer Yudkowsky

  1. Mixed Prediction 5 March 2024
    “Beating GPT-4 on GI just forces OpenAI to release 4.5.”

    If a rival AI developer beats GPT-4 on general intelligence, OpenAI will be forced to release GPT-4.5.

  2. Mostly true Prediction February 2023
    “But I do feel quite confident that the upper range of that untapped potential is insufficient to outsmart all the living humans and implement the scenario that I'm worried about.”

    Yudkowsky said he felt quite confident that the upper range of the untapped potential of ChatGPT-style systems is insufficient to outsmart all living humans and carry out the catastrophe scenario he worries about.

  3. Resolved false Prediction 6 April 2023
    “The current crop of people will not try it.”

    The current AI developers will not try the alignment approach he described (filtering training data to nice examples and training on it).

  4. Mostly false Prediction 6 April 2023
    “So probably Paul’s going to win, but slight moral victory.”

    Paul Christiano will probably win his forecast disagreement with Yudkowsky on an AI getting IMO gold by 2025, with prediction-market odds then running around 30%.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 6 April 2023
    “Alignment will not be solved in a few years.”

    AI alignment will not be solved within a few years.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.