ClaimsEliezer Yudkowsky

“Many researchers steeped in these issues, including myself, expect that the most likely result of building a superhumanly smart AI, under anything remotely like the current circumstances, is that literally everyone on Earth will die.”

Eliezer Yudkowsky, MIRI researcher, op-ed author 7 April 2023 Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down (MIRI (TIME op-ed))

Prediction AI safety and alignment

Yudkowsky says that he and many other researchers expect the most likely result of building a superhumanly smart AI under anything remotely like current circumstances is that literally everyone on Earth will die.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

Reasoning

This is a conditional prediction about superhuman AI with no time horizon, and it cannot be tested yet.

Cite this claim

Eliezer Yudkowsky, “Yudkowsky says that he and many other researchers expect the most likely result of building a superhumanly smart AI under anything remotely like current circumstances is that literally everyone on Earth will die.” (said 7 April 2023). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_2dd797715592, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_2dd797715592

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Eliezer Yudkowsky, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Eliezer Yudkowsky

  1. Resolved false Prediction 6 April 2023
    “The current crop of people will not try it.”

    The current AI developers will not try the alignment approach he described (filtering training data to nice examples and training on it).

  2. Resolved true Prediction 6 April 2023
    “Alignment will not be solved in a few years.”

    AI alignment will not be solved within a few years.

  3. Resolved true Prediction 6 April 2023
    “even if GPT-5 doesn’t end the world, which I agree is like more than 50% of where my probability mass lies”

    GPT-5 will not end the world, with more than 50% of Yudkowsky's probability on that outcome.

  4. Mostly true Prediction 2008
    “Most AI researchers will not want to make unFriendly AIs.”

    Most AI researchers will not want to make unFriendly AIs.

  5. Mixed Prediction 5 March 2024
    “Beating GPT-4 on GI just forces OpenAI to release 4.5.”

    If a rival AI developer beats GPT-4 on general intelligence, OpenAI will be forced to release GPT-4.5.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.