Amodei said the same exponential trends and arguments predict that, if progress continues for another two, three or maybe four years, AI models will be as intelligent as Nobel Prize winners across a whole bunch of fields.
Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Reasoning
deadline 2029 is after 2026-11-04
Cite this claim
Dario Amodei, “Amodei said the same exponential trends and arguments predict that, if progress continues for another two, three or maybe four years, AI models will be as intelligent as Nobel Prize winners across a whole bunch of fields.” (said 10 March 2025). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_2a56fbe7d16f, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_2a56fbe7d16f
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Dario Amodei
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Resolved false
“where AI is writing 90 percent of the code”
Within three to six months of March 2025, AI will be writing 90 percent of code.
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Resolved false
“And then in twelve months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code”
Within twelve months of March 2025, AI may be writing essentially all of the code.
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Mostly true
“We may actually hit that this year”
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Mostly false
“We believe AI for biology is on a similar exponential trend.”
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Mostly true
“We're gonna be fine. The-- the impact of this designation is fairly small.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.