ClaimsGary Marcus

“It’s probably not happening in five to 10 years.”

Gary Marcus, interviewee 14 November 2019 EP25 Gary Marcus on Rebooting AI (The Jim Rutt Show)

Prediction AI timelines and forecasting

Artificial general intelligence will probably not be achieved within five to 10 years of 2019.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

deadline 2029 is after 2026-11-04

Cite this claim

Gary Marcus, “Artificial general intelligence will probably not be achieved within five to 10 years of 2019.” (said 14 November 2019). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_26f09ec5847f, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_26f09ec5847f

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Gary Marcus, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Gary Marcus

  1. Resolved true Prediction 27 July 2025
    “GPT-5 by itself won’t be a general purpose artificial general intelligence capable of taking on arbitrary tasks.”

    GPT-5 by itself will not be a general-purpose AGI capable of arbitrary tasks.

  2. Resolved true Prediction 1 January 2025
    “We will not see artificial general intelligence this year, despite claims by Elon Musk to the contrary.”

    Artificial general intelligence will not be achieved in 2025.

  3. Mostly true Prediction 31 March 2024
    “But will we see a mindblowing GPT this year? I doubt it.”

    Marcus doubted that a mindblowing GPT model would be released in 2024.

  4. Resolved false Prediction 14 December 2021
    “my bet: hybrid models will pull ahead next year.”

    Gary Marcus bet that hybrid (neurosymbolic) AI models would pull ahead in 2022.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 20 September 2019
    “I don’t think it’s going to happen in the next five years.”

    Marcus said he did not think machines would reach world-class scientific reasoning within the next five years (by 2024).

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.