ClaimsRay Dalio

“in 1937, the Federal Reserve started to tighten monetary policy a lot and there was an interest rate sensitivity associated with that.”

Ray Dalio, interviewee 11 November 2018 Transcript: Ray Dalio, Bridgewater (Ritholtz) archived copy

Factual Economics and markets

In 1937 the US Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy substantially.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

True: historical records show that the Federal Reserve tightened substantially in 1936–1937, for example by raising reserve requirements (doubling them in steps from August 1936 to May 1937), along with Treasury gold sterilization, which contributed to the 1937–38 recession. Mostly true: there was significant tightening, but its timing or form differs slightly (for example it began in 1936, or partly came from Treasury rather than the Fed). Mostly false: there was only minor Fed tightening in 1937, with the main tightening done by others. False: the Fed did not tighten in or around 1937.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Navigating Constraints: The Evolution of Federal Reserve Monetary Policy, 1935-59 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (FEDS Working Paper 2014-44), authors Mark A. Carlson and David C. Wheelock · 9 June 2014

    “To reduce excess reserves, the Board increased reserve requirements in three steps during 1936-37 that in sum doubled all required reserve ratios and brought them to the maximums allowed by law.”
  2. E2 Navigating Constraints: The Evolution of Federal Reserve Monetary Policy, 1935-59 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (FEDS Working Paper 2014-44), authors Mark A. Carlson and David C. Wheelock · 9 June 2014

    “In December 1936, the Treasury Department began to sterilize gold inflows to prevent them from further increasing bank reserves.”
  3. E3 Navigating Constraints: The Evolution of Federal Reserve Monetary Policy, 1935-59 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (FEDS Working Paper 2014-44), authors Mark A. Carlson and David C. Wheelock · 9 June 2014

    “The Fed stressed that the increases in reserve requirements (and gold sterilization) “did not reflect changes in Federal Reserve credit policy, which continued to be directed toward monetary ease.”
  4. E4 Navigating Constraints: The Evolution of Federal Reserve Monetary Policy, 1935-59 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (FEDS Working Paper 2014-44), authors Mark A. Carlson and David C. Wheelock · 9 June 2014

    “Friedman and Schwartz (1963) argue that the action was an important cause of the recession. They contend that banks held excess reserves as a precaution against bank runs, and that banks reduced credit supply in an effort to rebuild their excess reserves after reserve requirements were increased.”

Reasoning

A Federal Reserve staff paper [E1] says the Board raised reserve requirements in three steps during 1936-37. Together the increases doubled all required reserve ratios to the legal maximums. The same paper [E2] reports that the Treasury began sterilizing gold inflows in December 1936. It also cites Friedman and Schwartz's view that the reserve requirement increase was an important cause of the recession [E4]. The Fed said at the time that its credit policy was still aimed at ease [E3], but the doubling of reserve requirements alongside gold sterilization matches the criteria's description of substantial tightening in 1936–37.

Cite this claim

Ray Dalio, “In 1937 the US Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy substantially.” (said 11 November 2018). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_24b327c75a07, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_24b327c75a07

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

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More factual claims by Ray Dalio

  1. Mostly false Factual 9 May 2026
    “That has been true through all history.”

    Throughout history, including before World War II, societies have generally had rising living standards and become richer.

  2. Mostly true Factual 9 May 2026
    “So when we look at history, we see that in all such periods, all the fiat currencies go down, okay?”

    Dalio said that history shows all fiat currencies go down in all such periods, which followed the interviewer's reference to times "where they can print the money".

  3. Mostly true Factual 9 May 2026
    “It takes in about $5 trillion, so it spends 40% more than it takes in.”

    The US government takes in about $5 trillion and spends about $7 trillion, about 40% more than it takes in.

  4. Mostly true Factual 9 May 2026
    “you could still have financial problems, like the breakdown of the monetary system in 1971, okay?”

    The monetary system broke down in 1971 while the United States was still a dominant power.

  5. Resolved true Factual 9 May 2026
    “one-third of our debt is held by foreigners, so that’s a different thing.”

    About one-third of US debt is held by foreigners.

All of them

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