Machines could probably make progress in biology pretty fast, though there is huge uncertainty.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Reasoning
It is a hedged prediction with no horizon and vague terms.
Cite this claim
Dario Amodei, “Machines could probably make progress in biology pretty fast, though there is huge uncertainty.” (said 21 July 2017). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_1ffac24c678b, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_1ffac24c678b
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Dario Amodei
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Mostly false
“We believe AI for biology is on a similar exponential trend.”
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Mostly true
“We're gonna be fine. The-- the impact of this designation is fairly small.”
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Resolved false
“where AI is writing 90 percent of the code”
Within three to six months of March 2025, AI will be writing 90 percent of code.
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Resolved false
“And then in twelve months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code”
Within twelve months of March 2025, AI may be writing essentially all of the code.
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Mostly true
“We may actually hit that this year”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.