ClaimsEliezer Yudkowsky

“I’m pretty sure that the things that are smart enough no longer need the giant runs.”

Eliezer Yudkowsky, interviewee 6 April 2023 Eliezer Yudkowsky - Why AI Will Kill Us, Aligning LLMs, Nature of Intelligence, SciFi, & Rationality (Dwarkesh Podcast) archived copy

Prediction AI compute, hardware and data

Yudkowsky said he is pretty sure that AI systems that are smart enough will no longer need giant training runs.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

Prediction about hypothetical future systems with no horizon.

Cite this claim

Eliezer Yudkowsky, “Yudkowsky said he is pretty sure that AI systems that are smart enough will no longer need giant training runs.” (said 6 April 2023). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_1d986f0a66ea, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_1d986f0a66ea

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Eliezer Yudkowsky, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Eliezer Yudkowsky

  1. Resolved true Prediction 2008
    “I doubt a thousandfold increase in hardware would purchase anything like a thousandfold increase in effective intelligence”

    Yudkowsky doubted that a thousandfold increase in AI hardware would buy anything like a thousandfold increase in effective intelligence, while noting that such doubt is not reliable without an analytical calculation.

  2. Mixed Prediction 5 March 2024
    “Beating GPT-4 on GI just forces OpenAI to release 4.5.”

    If a rival AI developer beats GPT-4 on general intelligence, OpenAI will be forced to release GPT-4.5.

  3. Resolved false Prediction 6 April 2023
    “The current crop of people will not try it.”

    The current AI developers will not try the alignment approach he described (filtering training data to nice examples and training on it).

  4. Mostly false Prediction 6 April 2023
    “So probably Paul’s going to win, but slight moral victory.”

    Paul Christiano will probably win his forecast disagreement with Yudkowsky on an AI getting IMO gold by 2025, with prediction-market odds then running around 30%.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 6 April 2023
    “Alignment will not be solved in a few years.”

    AI alignment will not be solved within a few years.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.