Gina Hinojosa trails Republican Governor Greg Abbott by 2.7 points in the Texas gubernatorial race polling.

Judge against the polling average the speaker was citing (presumably the Silver Bulletin or a comparable average) for the 2026 Texas governor's race as of about 23 Oct 2026. True: the average shows Hinojosa as the Democratic nominee trailing Abbott by 2.7 points (rounding ±0.1 allowed). Mostly true: she trails by about that much (within ~0.5 point) in the cited average, or exactly 2.7 in a different named average. Mixed: she trails, but by a clearly different margin (roughly 1–2 points off) in the averages available on that date. Mostly false: she trails by a margin very different from 2.7 (e.g., 6+ or under 1), or Hinojosa is not the nominee though a Democrat trails by about that much. False: Hinojosa leads or is tied in the averages on that date, or there is no such race featuring her.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Abbott’s advantage narrows as Hinojosa gains ground in latest poll Fox 7 Austin · 23 October 2026

   “Abbott was leading Hinojosa by three points, 51%-48%, in the poll, but has seen his lead shrink”

2. E2 Texas 2026 Poll: Toss-Up U.S. Senate Race; Abbott Maintains Edge for Governor - Emerson Polling Emerson College Polling · 22 October 2026

   “In the race for Governor, 49% support incumbent Republican Greg Abbott, while 45% support Democrat Gina Hinojosa, and 1% support Libertarian Pat Dixon.”

3. E3 2026 Texas gubernatorial election - Wikipedia Wikipedia

   “Silver Bulletin[82] | through November 1, 2026 | November 2, 2026 | 49.4% | 47.7% | 2.9% | Abbott +1.7%”

4. E4 2026 Texas Governor - Abbott vs. Hinojosa vs. Dixon | RealClearPolling RealClearPolling

   “RCP Average | 9/25 - 11/1 | — | — | 49.5 | 47.2 | 1.7 | Abbott+2.3”

5. E5 2026 Texas gubernatorial election - Wikipedia Wikipedia

   “Silver Bulletin[82] | through November 1, 2026 | November 2, 2026 | 49.4% | 47.7% | 2.9% | Abbott +1.7%”

6. E6 2026 Texas gubernatorial election - Wikipedia Wikipedia

   “RealClearPolitics[104] | October 15 – November 1, 2026 | November 1, 2026 | 49.8% | 47.3% | 2.9% | Abbott +2.5%”

7. E7 2026 Texas gubernatorial election - Wikipedia Wikipedia

   “Hinojosa won the Democratic nomination with 59% of the vote over a field of candidates that included former congressman Chris Bell.”

8. E8 Texas Governor Polls 2026: Hinojosa vs. Abbott | Crosstab Crosstab · 3 November 2026

   “Abbott leads by 2.4 points in the Crosstab average of recent polls. Crosstab rates it Leans GOP.”

9. E9 2026 Polls: Texas Governor - 270toWin 270toWin

   “| Source | | Date | Sample | Hinojosa | Abbott* | Other | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | Average of 11 Polls† | | | | 47.4% | 49.5% | - |”

10. E10 Texas Governor Results 2026: Abbott vs. Hinojosa TexPolls · 4 November 2026

    “Abbott won the March primary with 81.8%. Hinojosa won the Democratic nomination with 58.5%.”

E7 and E10 show that Hinojosa is the Democratic nominee, and every source shows her trailing Abbott. However, none of the evidence gives the Silver Bulletin average, or any other average, as of about 23 October 2026. The Silver Bulletin figure of Abbott +1.7 (E3/E5) covers polls through 1 November, and the RealClearPolitics/RealClearPolling averages of Abbott +2.5 and +2.3 (E6, E4) and Crosstab's Abbott +2.4 (E8) are also from later dates. The individual polls from around the judging date (E1 at +3, E2 at +4) are not averages. Because the average on the judging date isn't in the evidence, it can't be checked whether it showed a 2.7-point margin.