ClaimsDario Amodei

“It could turn out that like solving biology is just this exponentially complicated combinatorial problem or it’s limited by data and experiment.”

Dario Amodei, OpenAI researcher, interviewee 21 July 2017 Dario Amodei on OpenAI and how AI will change the world for good and ill (80,000 Hours) archived copy

Prediction Biosecurity

Solving biology might turn out to be an exponentially complicated combinatorial problem or be limited by data and experiment.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

It is a vague either/or speculation with no horizon.

Cite this claim

Dario Amodei, “Solving biology might turn out to be an exponentially complicated combinatorial problem or be limited by data and experiment.” (said 21 July 2017). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_146e356fdc0a, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_146e356fdc0a

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Dario Amodei, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Dario Amodei

  1. Mostly false Prediction 23 September 2026
    “We believe AI for biology is on a similar exponential trend.”

    Amodei said that "we" believe AI for biology is on an exponential trend similar to the one he described for AI in mathematics.

  2. Mostly true Prediction 28 February 2026
    “We're gonna be fine. The-- the impact of this designation is fairly small.”

    Anthropic will be fine, and the impact of the supply chain risk designation on it will be fairly small.

  3. Resolved false Prediction 10 March 2025
    “where AI is writing 90 percent of the code”

    Within three to six months of March 2025, AI will be writing 90 percent of code.

  4. Resolved false Prediction 10 March 2025
    “And then in twelve months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code”

    Within twelve months of March 2025, AI may be writing essentially all of the code.

  5. Mostly true Prediction 10 March 2025
    “We may actually hit that this year”

    Anthropic's models may reach AI Safety Level 3 in 2025.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.