ClaimsEliezer Yudkowsky

“In a couple of years we may have empirical data on how much average men really value female intelligence”

Eliezer Yudkowsky, posting on X 16 December 2020 Post by @ESYudkowsky on X, 2020-12-16 (X)

Prediction AI, the economy and work

By about 2022, there may be empirical data on how much average men value female intelligence, e.g. what share would pay $5/month for a girlfriend as smart as GPT-3 rather than GPT-2.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

Hedged 'may be' claim about hypothetical data on a very specific survey; too vague to test.

Cite this claim

Eliezer Yudkowsky, “By about 2022, there may be empirical data on how much average men value female intelligence, e.g. what share would pay $5/month for a girlfriend as smart as GPT-3 rather than GPT-2.” (said 16 December 2020). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_0e16d32073e7, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_0e16d32073e7

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Eliezer Yudkowsky, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Eliezer Yudkowsky

  1. Mixed Prediction 5 March 2024
    “Beating GPT-4 on GI just forces OpenAI to release 4.5.”

    If a rival AI developer beats GPT-4 on general intelligence, OpenAI will be forced to release GPT-4.5.

  2. Resolved false Prediction 6 April 2023
    “The current crop of people will not try it.”

    The current AI developers will not try the alignment approach he described (filtering training data to nice examples and training on it).

  3. Mostly false Prediction 6 April 2023
    “So probably Paul’s going to win, but slight moral victory.”

    Paul Christiano will probably win his forecast disagreement with Yudkowsky on an AI getting IMO gold by 2025, with prediction-market odds then running around 30%.

  4. Resolved true Prediction 6 April 2023
    “Alignment will not be solved in a few years.”

    AI alignment will not be solved within a few years.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 6 April 2023
    “even if GPT-5 doesn’t end the world, which I agree is like more than 50% of where my probability mass lies”

    GPT-5 will not end the world, with more than 50% of Yudkowsky's probability on that outcome.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.