ClaimsRay Kurzweil

“we’re going to hear early versions that computers are past the Turing test and we won’t actually pay attention to that.”

Ray Kurzweil, interviewee 26 May 2022 Ray Kurzweil: 2022-2025 Updates (transcripts) (LifeArchitect.ai) archived copy

Prediction AI capabilities

People will hear early claims that computers have passed the Turing test and will not pay attention to them.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

Vague prediction about public attention with no clear horizon or measure.

Cite this claim

Ray Kurzweil, “People will hear early claims that computers have passed the Turing test and will not pay attention to them.” (said 26 May 2022). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_0671611ceed1, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_0671611ceed1

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More prediction claims by Ray Kurzweil

  1. Mostly false Prediction January 2001
    “Computers will be able to read on their own, understanding and modeling what they have read, by the second decade of the twenty-first century.”

    Computers will be able to read on their own, understanding and modeling what they read, by the second decade of the 21st century.

  2. Mostly false Prediction May 2020
    “This is where combining AI with biotechnology is headed, and within several years all vaccine and medication development could be done this way.”

    Within several years all vaccine and medication development could be done by combining AI with biotechnology.

  3. Mostly false Prediction 3 June 2015
    “We're going to gradually merge and enhance ourselves.”

    Kurzweil predicted that humans will gradually merge with technology and enhance themselves.

  4. Resolved true Prediction 12 December 2002
    “Ten or 15 years from now we’ll go to the third dimension.”

    Ten or 15 years after 2002, computing will move to three-dimensional circuits as integrated circuits run out of steam.

  5. Mostly false Prediction January 2001
    “In line with my earlier predictions, supercomputers will achieve one human brain capacity by 2010, and personal computers will do so by around 2020.”

    Supercomputers will achieve one human brain's capacity by 2010, and personal computers by around 2020.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.