AI seems likely to enable much better propaganda and surveillance, which are major tools of autocrats.

This is an open-ended prediction with no deadline. Judge it on the evidence available when it is researched. True: credible documentation shows AI materially improving both propaganda (for example AI-generated disinformation, deepfakes or automated influence operations) and surveillance (for example mass facial recognition or AI analysis of communications), with these used by autocratic or authoritarian governments. Mostly true: both are documented, but adoption by autocrats is shown for only one, or the improvement is modest. Mixed: AI clearly improved one of the two but not the other. Mostly false: only isolated or experimental uses, with no material improvement in either. False: credible assessments find AI has not meaningfully improved propaganda or surveillance capabilities.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 The Repressive Power of Artificial Intelligence Freedom House · 9 July 2023

   “Over the past year, the new technology was utilized in at least 16 countries to sow doubt, smear opponents, or influence public debate.”

2. E2 The Repressive Power of Artificial Intelligence Freedom House · 9 July 2023

   “Sophisticated surveillance systems rapidly trawl social media for signs of dissent, and massive datasets are paired with facial scans to identify and track prodemocracy protesters.”

3. E3 The Disruptive Politics of AI Carnegie Endowment for International Peace · 22 September 2026

   “AI technology has proliferated extensively and offers authoritarian leaders three crucial advantages: scale, speed, and efficiency. As a result, it has undoubtedly become a crucial tool of repression.”

4. E4 On the way to deep fake democracy? Deep fakes in election campaigns in 2023 Springer (European Political Science, peer-reviewed journal; authors Mateusz Łabuz and Christopher Nehring) · 26 April 2024

   “This demonstrates that the disruptive potential of deep fakes does not necessarily root in their ability to persuade audiences of their messages.”

Freedom House documents AI-enabled surveillance that trawls social media for dissent and uses facial scans to track pro-democracy protesters (E2). Carnegie describes AI as a crucial tool of repression for authoritarian leaders because of its scale, speed and efficiency (E3). On propaganda, generative AI was used in at least 16 countries to sow doubt, smear opponents or influence public debate (E1), and deepfakes appeared in 2023 election campaigns (E4). However, the quoted evidence does not explicitly attribute the propaganda uses to autocratic governments, so adoption by autocrats is clearly shown only for surveillance.