ClaimsRodney Brooks

“Google/Waymo has been working on self driving cars for eight years and there is still no path identified for large scale deployment.”

Rodney Brooks, author of his blog 7 September 2017 [FoR&AI] The Seven Deadly Sins of Predicting the Future of AI (rodneybrooks.com) archived copy

Factual Technology

As of 2017, Google/Waymo has worked on self-driving cars for eight years and has no identified path to large-scale deployment.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

There are two parts: (1) by September 2017, Google/Waymo had been working on self-driving cars for about eight years (the project began around 2009); (2) as of September 2017, no path to large-scale deployment had been identified. True if the project started in 2009 (±1 year) and, as of September 2017, Waymo had no commercial service or announced concrete plan for large-scale deployment. Mostly true if part (2) holds and the duration is off by one or two years. Mixed if the duration is right but Waymo had by then publicly announced a concrete deployment plan, such as a dated driverless commercial service or a large vehicle-purchase plan, so that 'no path' is a matter of debate. Mostly false if Waymo had clearly announced, by then, specific plans and partnerships for scaled commercial deployment. False if both parts are wrong.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Waymo CTO on the company's past, present and what comes next | TechCrunch TechCrunch · 8 February 2019

    “Project Chauffeur — popularly know as the “Google self-driving car project” — kicked off in January 2009.”
  2. E2 Waymo to take on Uber and Lyft with its fleet of self-driving minivans CNBC · 7 November 2017

    “Still, Waymo's corporate parent, Alphabet, has deep pockets and a strategy designed to leverage eight years of developing self-driving cars.”
  3. E3 Robotaxi - Wikipedia Wikipedia

    “In early 2017, Waymo, the Google self-driving car project that became an independent company in 2016, started a large public robotaxi test in Phoenix, Arizona, using 100 and then 500 more Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid minivans provided by Fiat Chrysler Automobiles as part of a partnership between the two companies.”
  4. E4 Robotaxi - Wikipedia Wikipedia

    “April 2017 – Waymo started large scale robotaxi tests in a geo-fenced suburb of Phoenix, Arizona with a driver monitoring each vehicle.”

Reasoning

E1 and E2 support the roughly eight-year duration, and E3 and E4 show a large public robotaxi test in Phoenix with safety drivers in 2017. No evidence item shows whether Waymo had, or had not, announced a concrete deployment plan by September 2017, and E3 does not date the addition of the 500 further minivans, so the second part of the claim cannot be settled under the criteria.

Cite this claim

Rodney Brooks, “As of 2017, Google/Waymo has worked on self-driving cars for eight years and has no identified path to large-scale deployment.” (said 7 September 2017). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_017ce940f646, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_017ce940f646

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Rodney Brooks, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More factual claims by Rodney Brooks

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  2. Mixed Factual 29 September 2024
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    In the early days of robots for hospitals, hotels and managed care facilities, Wi-Fi first had to be installed in buildings so the robots could know what to do next.

  3. Mostly true Factual 29 September 2024
    “The Roomba was an easy sale, not just for its price, but because it did not demand that people had to install some infrastructure in their home environment before they could have a Roomba clean their…”

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  4. Mostly true Factual 1 January 2024
    “I did an analysis of the lack of videos showing any practical looking flights of any potential eVTOL solution”

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  5. Resolved true Factual 22 June 2023
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    The San Francisco fire chief is unhappy with driverless vehicles in the city.

All of them

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