Satya Nadella

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

• Factual claims

  Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

  83 77 88

  High confidence, 77 factual claims resolved. From 16 documents, 2014 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

  Not scored: 23 unresolvable, 17 checkable only against their own records.

  See the factual claims

• Predictions

  Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

  Insufficient record: 4 predictions resolved, 5 needed for a score.

  Not scored: 19 unresolvable. 1 more fall due later.

  Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

  See the predictions

• Promises

  Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

  77 65 88

  Medium confidence, 17 promises resolved. From 9 documents, 2014 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

  Not scored: 9 unresolvable, 7 not yet due.

  See the promises

All types combined: 82 (likely 77 to 86, high confidence), from 94 claims: 77 factual claims, 17 promises. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.