Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
83 77 88 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
69 49 87 -
Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
69 49 87
All types combined: 81 (likely 76 to 86, high confidence), from 87 claims: 77 factual claims, 5 predictions, 5 promises. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Sam Altman's claims
2 claims
| Verdict | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mostly false | Factual | 24 Jan 2019 | Work stamina seems to be one of the biggest predictors of long-term success. Factual · 24 Jan 2019 | Field building and careers |
| Mostly false | Factual | Feb 2015 | Altman wrote that in the previous 40 years there had been little progress on the parts of machine intelligence that seem really hard, such as learning and creativity. Factual · Feb 2015 | AI capabilities |
“In fact, work stamina seems to be one of the biggest predictors of long-term success.”
Sam Altman, blog author 24 January 2019 How To Be Successful (Sam Altman's blog)
Work stamina seems to be one of the biggest predictors of long-term success.
Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.
What would count as true or false
Because the claim is stated as an empirical finding, judge it against research on predictors of long-term success. True: peer-reviewed research shows that work stamina, or a close construct such as sustained effort, persistence or grit, is among the strongest predictors of long-term success. Mostly true: research finds it a meaningful but moderate predictor, or the evidence concerns a closely related construct. Mixed: the findings are inconsistent. Mostly false: no rigorous study establishes it as one of the biggest predictors, and the claim generalizes from anecdote or weak associations; it also covers cases where studies such as grit meta-analyses find small effects compared with ability or conscientiousness. False: research shows work stamina has little or no predictive value for long-term success.
Evidence
- Grit: perseverance and passion for long-term goals - PubMed PubMed (National Library of Medicine), reporting Duckworth AL et al., Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · June 2007
“Defined as perseverance and passion for long-term goals, grit accounted for an average of 4% of the variance in success outcomes”
- Grit: perseverance and passion for long-term goals - PubMed PubMed (National Library of Medicine), reporting Duckworth AL et al., Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · June 2007
“Grit did not relate positively to IQ but was highly correlated with Big Five Conscientiousness. Grit nonetheless demonstrated incremental predictive validity of success measures over and beyond IQ and conscientiousness.”
- A century of research on conscientiousness at work PNAS (via PubMed Central) · 30 October 2019
“Evidence from more than 100 y of research indicates that conscientiousness (C) is the most potent noncognitive construct for occupational performance.”
- A century of research on conscientiousness at work PNAS (via PubMed Central) · 30 October 2019
“Meta-analyses show C is a potent predictor of consequential life outcomes, including academic performance (10), physical health and mortality (11), work performance (12), marital stability (11), and subjective well-being (13).”
Reasoning
The closest construct in the evidence is grit, defined as perseverance and passion for long-term goals. In the original grit studies it explained an average of 4% of the variance in success outcomes (E1), a small effect. It added some predictive power beyond IQ and conscientiousness and was highly correlated with conscientiousness (E2). Research reviews describe conscientiousness, a broader trait, as the most potent noncognitive construct for occupational performance [E3] and a potent predictor of several life outcomes [E4]; they do not single out stamina or grit. Under the criteria, a small grit effect next to broader traits like conscientiousness fits "mostly false" rather than "one of the biggest predictors".
Cite this claim
Sam Altman, “Work stamina seems to be one of the biggest predictors of long-term success.” (said 24 January 2019). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_61927833878c, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_61927833878c
Claims without a verdict
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